259
FXUS64 KLZK 060535
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MILD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY AND
AVERAGE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH BROAD
RIDGING SITTING PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF US. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
UPPER TROUGHING, CURRENTLY ALONG THE WA/OR COAST, IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY
BEING CARVED OUT IN ITS BASE. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAKER TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S STATEWIDE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH IN TURN WILL DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON
TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE OZARKS/OUACHITAS BUT NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ON TUESDAY WITH 70 DEGREES PLUS READINGS FORECAST. THE ONLY
INDICATION OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NW
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME TYPE OF
BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE WITH A DEFINITE INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S/60S. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT SKETCHY BUT ANYTHING WOULD BE
WELCOMED AT THIS POINT AND EVEN SOME SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT COMPLETELY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD BUT SOME MVFR CIGS SEEM LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENTS
BY TUE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TIME A NEW FRONT DROPS SE INTO THE
STATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT WILL TURN FROM THE SW TO NW
WITH TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 50 73 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 52 74 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 51 70 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 72 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 51 71 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 55 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 50 74 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 47 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 50 71 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 52 73 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 71 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 47 71 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 52 71 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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