761
FXUS64 KLZK 061139
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE STATE.
- A STORM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH COOLER AIR COMING BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION BUT A FEW POCKETS OF STRATUS ARE SHOWING UP, AND
VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE SAME OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH READINGS ACROSS THE
STATE IN THE 50S.
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOTED.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THAT WAS PREVALENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS CONSIDERABLY FLATTER THIS MORNING WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. JUST SOME
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WILL EVEN MARK ITS
EXISTENCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL COME BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT DOES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH A BETTER
MOISTURE TAP AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, RAINFALL
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BUT ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN
THE MODELS. WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN THOUGH IS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF
WILL LIKELY BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY AS A LARGE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT EVEN THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
STRATUS DECK PRODUCING MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHILE THE NORTH IS MAINLY VFR. ALL
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THERE WITH STATE TODAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING NW IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT REGARDLESS,
AVERAGING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 73 42 65 52 / 0 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 74 44 70 55 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 70 41 67 53 / 0 0 0 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 43 67 54 / 0 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 44 66 54 / 0 0 0 20
MONTICELLO AR 74 49 71 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 74 42 68 55 / 0 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 38 65 51 / 0 0 0 50
NEWPORT AR 71 42 64 52 / 0 0 0 20
PINE BLUFF AR 73 45 68 55 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 41 67 52 / 0 0 0 40
SEARCY AR 71 40 66 51 / 0 0 0 20
STUTTGART AR 71 45 66 54 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
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