312
FXUS64 KLZK 061716 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1116 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE STATE.
- A STORM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH COOLER AIR COMING BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION BUT A FEW POCKETS OF STRATUS ARE SHOWING UP, AND
VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE SAME OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH READINGS ACROSS THE
STATE IN THE 50S.
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOTED.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THAT WAS PREVALENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS CONSIDERABLY FLATTER THIS MORNING WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. JUST SOME
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WILL EVEN MARK ITS
EXISTENCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL COME BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT DOES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH A BETTER
MOISTURE TAP AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, RAINFALL
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BUT ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN
THE MODELS. WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN THOUGH IS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF
WILL LIKELY BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY AS A LARGE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT EVEN THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH A
FEW CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR TERMINALS STILL DEALING WITH LOW CIGS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AREAWIDE TO VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR TONIGHT, GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA IN TERMS OF FG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE REMAINED OPTIMISTIC AND
DIDN'T INTRODUCE DRASTICALLY LOW VSBYS, BUT IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES BY 07/00Z THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FG ADDED TO THE
NEXT SET OF TAFS FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. SFC WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY WITH SOME N-S VARIATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 42 65 52 67 / 0 0 30 80
CAMDEN AR 44 70 55 71 / 0 0 10 70
HARRISON AR 41 67 53 67 / 0 0 50 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 67 54 69 / 0 0 30 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 44 66 54 69 / 0 0 20 80
MONTICELLO AR 49 71 58 74 / 0 0 0 60
MOUNT IDA AR 42 68 55 70 / 0 0 30 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 38 65 51 67 / 0 0 50 80
NEWPORT AR 42 64 52 68 / 0 0 20 80
PINE BLUFF AR 45 68 55 72 / 0 0 10 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 41 67 52 69 / 0 0 40 80
SEARCY AR 40 66 51 68 / 0 0 20 80
STUTTGART AR 45 66 54 69 / 0 0 10 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...67
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