492
FXUS64 KLZK 070528
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1128 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE STATE.
- A STORM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH COOLER AIR COMING BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION BUT A FEW POCKETS OF STRATUS ARE SHOWING UP, AND
VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE SAME OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH READINGS ACROSS THE
STATE IN THE 50S.
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOTED.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THAT WAS PREVALENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS CONSIDERABLY FLATTER THIS MORNING WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. JUST SOME
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WILL EVEN MARK ITS
EXISTENCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL COME BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT DOES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH A BETTER
MOISTURE TAP AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, RAINFALL
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BUT ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN
THE MODELS. WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN THOUGH IS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF
WILL LIKELY BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY AS A LARGE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT EVEN THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT
AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, LOW
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
BUT WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 42 66 50 70 / 0 0 10 70
CAMDEN AR 44 72 53 72 / 0 0 10 50
HARRISON AR 40 68 51 69 / 0 0 10 80
HOT SPRINGS AR 44 68 52 69 / 0 0 10 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 44 67 52 71 / 0 0 10 60
MONTICELLO AR 50 72 57 74 / 0 0 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 42 70 52 70 / 0 0 10 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 37 66 49 68 / 0 0 10 70
NEWPORT AR 41 66 50 70 / 0 0 10 60
PINE BLUFF AR 46 70 54 73 / 0 0 10 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 41 67 50 70 / 0 0 10 70
SEARCY AR 40 67 49 70 / 0 0 10 60
STUTTGART AR 45 68 54 71 / 0 0 10 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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