320
FXUS64 KLZK 080015
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM.
- TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER 60 MPH.
- A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- MUCH COOLER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES OR POSSIBLY
BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SEVERAL NEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE RECORDED ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE PLUS READINGS NOTED. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS WARM TODAY BUT STILL ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF THE CWA WITH AN ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH A TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE CWA.
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS VISIBILITY IS
LESS LIKELY THAN CEILINGS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT A MID
LEVEL UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY THROUGH TONIGHT,
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DOES. PATTERN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE NATION.
SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND RACE OFF TO THE NE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS
REESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEW
POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF IT POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS VERY LATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE CWA INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
KICK OUT. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEEING SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE RISK REMAINS CONDITIONAL AT BEST AS THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE, BUT GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DRYING OUT BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVING OFF TO THE NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SECOND
WAVE WILL LIKELY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BENEFICIAL RAIN BUT
THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE SE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET RAMPS UP.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR COMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AND IN SOME CASES, BELOW IT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS
WITH MONDAY LOOKING THE COLDEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
NOTHING BELOW 3 SM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP PRIMARILY MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. S WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 50 69 59 69 / 10 70 70 20
CAMDEN AR 53 72 61 72 / 10 50 70 50
HARRISON AR 51 68 49 65 / 20 80 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 52 69 58 71 / 10 70 60 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 70 59 70 / 10 60 80 30
MONTICELLO AR 57 75 65 74 / 0 40 70 70
MOUNT IDA AR 53 70 57 71 / 10 80 50 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 68 51 65 / 10 70 40 10
NEWPORT AR 51 70 60 70 / 10 60 90 20
PINE BLUFF AR 53 73 62 72 / 10 50 80 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 51 70 54 71 / 10 70 50 10
SEARCY AR 49 69 58 71 / 10 60 80 30
STUTTGART AR 53 71 62 72 / 10 50 80 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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