592
FXUS64 KLZK 081147
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT; THEN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY
- STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT; A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS AR. OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS SRN AR; THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NWRD THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING FOG DEVELOPING ALONG AND N OF THE
BOUNDARY. DENSE FOG MAY BE SEEN AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE TO
RESIDENCE TIME AND LOCATION OF THIS FOG WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME.
SYNOPTICALLY, H500 TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE TX/OK PANHANDLES NWRD INTO
ERN CO. AT THE SURFACE, A RATHER STOUT LOW WILL EJECT EWRD ACROSS KS
AND MO TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING BLUSTERY SW WINDS TO AR TODAY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-35
MPH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THANKS TO BRISK SWRLY
WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TODAY. A LOT
OF WIND ENERGY WILL SURROUND THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL VEER WITH
HEIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. DESPITE AMPLE WIND ENERGY SURROUNDING
THIS SYSTEM, INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THIS GO
AROUND. THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO
MAYBE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF AR FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE PARENT H500 TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWRD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A NEW SURFACE LOW SHOULD SPUR NEAR COASTAL TX
BEFORE LIFTING NEWRD TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. POP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER OVER THE SE 2/3RDS
OF AR WITH THIS ROUND. QPF AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1" ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. WHILE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
DISPLACED S/SE/E OF AR, FAR SE SECTION OF THE STATE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER
FAR SE AR WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S/NEAR 60 OVER NW AR TO LOWER 70S OVER
SE AR.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AS STRONG
CLOSED LOW DIPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S/50S. LOOKING INTO EARLY/MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, NW FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDS WERE ONGOING AT MOST TERMINALS AS OF 12Z.
THROUGH EARLY MORNING ~15Z, IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL
CNTRL/SRN SITES. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND T/TD SPREAD INCREASES,
VIS'BYS SHOULD IMPROVE YIELDING MAINLY MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURS/THURS NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM PASS TO THE N OF AR. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IN POPS WILL BE AT KPBF AND KLLQ. SW GRADIENT WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT WINDS MAY RAIN
ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 56 65 44 / 60 60 20 40
CAMDEN AR 74 60 71 45 / 40 60 60 70
HARRISON AR 69 45 59 37 / 80 20 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 56 68 43 / 60 40 30 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 59 68 46 / 60 60 30 60
MONTICELLO AR 76 65 73 52 / 30 60 70 80
MOUNT IDA AR 71 54 68 41 / 70 20 20 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 47 60 39 / 80 30 10 30
NEWPORT AR 71 57 67 46 / 50 70 20 60
PINE BLUFF AR 75 62 72 48 / 40 70 50 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 51 67 43 / 80 30 10 30
SEARCY AR 71 56 67 44 / 50 60 20 60
STUTTGART AR 72 62 70 49 / 40 70 40 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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