554
FXUS64 KLZK 081725
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT; THEN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY
- STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT; A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS AR. OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS SRN AR; THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NWRD THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING FOG DEVELOPING ALONG AND N OF THE
BOUNDARY. DENSE FOG MAY BE SEEN AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE TO
RESIDENCE TIME AND LOCATION OF THIS FOG WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME.
SYNOPTICALLY, H500 TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE TX/OK PANHANDLES NWRD INTO
ERN CO. AT THE SURFACE, A RATHER STOUT LOW WILL EJECT EWRD ACROSS KS
AND MO TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING BLUSTERY SW WINDS TO AR TODAY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-35
MPH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THANKS TO BRISK SWRLY
WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TODAY. A LOT
OF WIND ENERGY WILL SURROUND THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL VEER WITH
HEIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. DESPITE AMPLE WIND ENERGY SURROUNDING
THIS SYSTEM, INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THIS GO
AROUND. THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO
MAYBE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF AR FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE PARENT H500 TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWRD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A NEW SURFACE LOW SHOULD SPUR NEAR COASTAL TX
BEFORE LIFTING NEWRD TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. POP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER OVER THE SE 2/3RDS
OF AR WITH THIS ROUND. QPF AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1" ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. WHILE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
DISPLACED S/SE/E OF AR, FAR SE SECTION OF THE STATE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER
FAR SE AR WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S/NEAR 60 OVER NW AR TO LOWER 70S OVER
SE AR.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AS STRONG
CLOSED LOW DIPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S/50S. LOOKING INTO EARLY/MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, NW FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z
WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE. LLWS ACROSS TERMINALS
AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z ACROSS ALL TERMINAL DUE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND 00Z FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE
DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 51 63 44 54 / 70 0 50 10
CAMDEN AR 59 70 47 57 / 60 50 80 10
HARRISON AR 42 58 37 49 / 10 0 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 52 66 44 53 / 60 20 60 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 65 45 55 / 60 20 70 10
MONTICELLO AR 64 73 52 60 / 40 50 90 10
MOUNT IDA AR 48 66 42 53 / 50 10 50 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 44 59 39 50 / 20 0 20 0
NEWPORT AR 53 63 46 53 / 70 10 60 10
PINE BLUFF AR 60 69 49 57 / 60 30 80 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 46 65 43 55 / 40 10 40 0
SEARCY AR 53 63 44 55 / 70 10 60 10
STUTTGART AR 59 67 49 55 / 60 20 80 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...76
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