647
FXUS64 KLZK 011635
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1035 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
-WARMING CONDTIONS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
-SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK...BUT WILL BE
SHORT- LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY LATE THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY
THIS SUN MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK UPPER WAVE IS PASSING JUST WEST OF AR...WHICH IS CREATING
SOME CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS FAR
WRN SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN SECTIONS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT SE BY SUN AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN OF SRLY
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BEGIN A WARMING TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO MAYBE 15 DEG
WARMER THAN OBSERVED ON SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE SRLY SFC FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE...WITH TEMPS EACH DAY
WARMING FURTHER. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS MON AND
TUE...WITH A FEW AREAS APPROACHING THE LOW 60S. THE SRLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
CHANCES FOR SHRA RETURN TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH
A NEW COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON TUE.
TEMPS WILL COOL BACK DOWN SOME FOR WED AND THU BEHIND THIS NEW COLD
FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTING EXTREME COLD LIKE WAS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.
BY LATE IN THE FORECAST...TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGHOUT MONDAY EARLY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
OF KHRO MAY EXPERIENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS,
THUS A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD TO CAPTURE THIS POSSIBILITY. KBPK AND KHOT BOTH
REMAIN DESIGNATED AS "AMD NOT SKED" DUE TO A COMMUNICATION ISSUE
THAT IS BEING TROUBLESHOT AT THE CURRENT TIME, BUT EXPECT THE SITES
ARE TO REMAIN "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL OBSERVATIONS RETURN TO THE
SITE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 24 51 35 52 / 0 0 0 40
CAMDEN AR 25 62 44 60 / 0 0 10 70
HARRISON AR 27 57 38 47 / 0 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 25 57 42 57 / 0 0 10 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 24 54 40 54 / 0 0 10 50
MONTICELLO AR 27 59 45 60 / 0 0 0 70
MOUNT IDA AR 27 59 44 58 / 0 0 10 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 21 54 34 48 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 21 46 34 48 / 0 0 0 40
PINE BLUFF AR 25 56 41 56 / 0 0 10 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 24 58 40 56 / 0 0 10 30
SEARCY AR 21 52 35 53 / 0 0 0 40
STUTTGART AR 24 51 40 53 / 0 0 0 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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