016
FXUS64 KLZK 180750
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
150 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
-DRY AIR AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
-INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE H500 PATTERN WILL REMAIN ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS ELONGATED RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE GULF. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL LIFT FROM THE SW US TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
FOR THURSDAY, ONE OF THE H500 TROUGHS WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE WITH A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG SFC WINDS DUE TO THE ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. VERY DRY AIR WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W/N ARKANSAS. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS THU AFTERNOON, MIN RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DIP DOWN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THE H500 RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BEGIN TO CONTRACT AND DRIFT FARTHER SW WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, MUCH LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF IS EXPECTED. BUT, THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW AND SFC RIDGING WILL
EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH 18/12Z ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AR TAF SITES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER THROUGH
THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH SOME
SHIFT TO W/SW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 58 77 41 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 75 60 79 47 / 0 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 75 55 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 59 77 44 / 0 0 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 60 77 45 / 0 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 73 63 79 51 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 75 59 77 42 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 54 77 36 / 0 0 10 0
NEWPORT AR 73 59 74 44 / 0 10 20 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 61 78 47 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 57 78 40 / 0 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 74 57 77 42 / 0 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 72 61 76 45 / 0 0 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67
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