253
FXUS64 KLZK 190516 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1116 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
-DRY AIR AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
-INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE H500 PATTERN WILL REMAIN ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS ELONGATED RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE GULF. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL LIFT FROM THE SW US TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
FOR THURSDAY, ONE OF THE H500 TROUGHS WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE WITH A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG SFC WINDS DUE TO THE ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. VERY DRY AIR WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W/N ARKANSAS. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS THU AFTERNOON, MIN RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DIP DOWN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THE H500 RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BEGIN TO CONTRACT AND DRIFT FARTHER SW WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, MUCH LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF IS EXPECTED. BUT, THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW AND SFC RIDGING WILL
EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
INCREASED S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE W-NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-17 KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS
FREQUENTLY ABOVE 20 KTS. SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE AREAWIDE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 56 77 43 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 75 60 78 47 / 10 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 75 52 75 36 / 0 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 59 76 45 / 10 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 59 78 46 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 74 62 79 52 / 10 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 75 57 77 42 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 51 76 36 / 0 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 73 59 76 44 / 0 10 30 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 60 79 47 / 10 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 54 79 41 / 0 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 74 55 77 42 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 71 60 76 46 / 10 10 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ004-005-
103-112-113-121-122-130-203-212-213-221-222-230-313.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...67
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