887
FXUS64 KLZK 191925 CCA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
125 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
.UPDATED AVIATION AFD TO INCLUDE THAT LLWS ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z.
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
-WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY AGAIN TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-COOLER AIR FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-LOW RAIN CHANCES FRI-SAT, WITH LITTLE QPF EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL BE INCREASING WILDFIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A STRONG
SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM KANSAS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ENHANCED BY THE
SFC CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, S/SW WINDS WILL REALLY PICK
UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND AS RH VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 25
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, THE WILDFIRE THREAT WILL REALLY CLIMB. IN
AREAS WHERE RH VALUES WON'T BE CRITICALLY LOW, STRONG WINDS WILL
STILL BE SEEN AND WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH WHILE THE SFC LOW
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WILL MARK THE END OF THE THIS PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY WITH THE
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER,
LIMITING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SFC, A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY S/SE ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY.
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN OUT OF THE
N-NW OVER THE STATE AS DEEP TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. SFC RIDGING WILL SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN US AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. A FEW
NIGHTS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN BEFORE
H500 RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH THE LLJ RAMPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS, THUS
DECIDED TO INCLUDE LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING AT 00Z THROUGH
09Z. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
TRENDING TO MVFR AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IMPACTING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 40 61 39 54 / 0 10 20 20
CAMDEN AR 45 68 47 62 / 0 20 30 20
HARRISON AR 34 57 37 50 / 0 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 65 44 59 / 0 10 30 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 45 63 43 57 / 0 10 40 20
MONTICELLO AR 50 68 49 62 / 10 20 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 40 66 43 60 / 0 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 35 57 36 51 / 0 0 20 20
NEWPORT AR 42 60 43 54 / 0 10 30 20
PINE BLUFF AR 46 65 46 59 / 0 20 40 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 40 64 42 57 / 0 10 20 10
SEARCY AR 40 62 40 57 / 0 10 30 20
STUTTGART AR 45 62 45 57 / 0 10 40 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ004-005-103-
112-113-121-122-130-203-212-213-221-222-230-313.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...76/78
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