593
FXUS64 KLZK 192332 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
532 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
-WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY AGAIN TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-COOLER AIR FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-LOW RAIN CHANCES FRI-SAT, WITH LITTLE QPF EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL BE INCREASING WILDFIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A STRONG
SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM KANSAS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ENHANCED BY THE
SFC CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, S/SW WINDS WILL REALLY PICK
UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND AS RH VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 25
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, THE WILDFIRE THREAT WILL REALLY CLIMB. IN
AREAS WHERE RH VALUES WON'T BE CRITICALLY LOW, STRONG WINDS WILL
STILL BE SEEN AND WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH WHILE THE SFC LOW
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WILL MARK THE END OF THE THIS PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY WITH THE
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER,
LIMITING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SFC, A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY S/SE ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY.
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN OUT OF THE
N-NW OVER THE STATE AS DEEP TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. SFC RIDGING WILL SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN US AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. A FEW
NIGHTS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN BEFORE
H500 RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDNS THRU THE NEW TAF PD, W/ RECENT VIS SAT IMGRY
SHOWING MAINLY WRLY HIGH CLOUD COVG MOVING ACRS THE STATE, W/ LOW
CU BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. GUSTY SWRLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND TURN TOWARDS NWRLIES OVERNIGHT AT AREA TERMINALS, WITH
GUSTIER CONDNS STILL POSSIBLE ACRS NRN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SOME
LLWS WL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA TERMINALS AS WELL. FRI AFTN SHOULD
YIELD WEAKER ERLY WINDS W/ VFR CONDNS PREVAILING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 39 59 41 54 / 0 10 20 20
CAMDEN AR 45 67 47 63 / 0 20 30 20
HARRISON AR 32 56 37 48 / 0 0 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 42 64 44 58 / 0 10 30 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 61 44 58 / 0 10 40 20
MONTICELLO AR 48 68 49 64 / 10 20 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 39 64 43 59 / 0 10 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 32 56 36 50 / 0 0 20 20
NEWPORT AR 40 58 43 52 / 0 10 30 20
PINE BLUFF AR 45 64 46 59 / 0 20 40 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 38 63 43 57 / 0 10 20 10
SEARCY AR 39 60 41 56 / 0 10 30 20
STUTTGART AR 44 61 45 56 / 0 10 40 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ004-005-103-
112-113-121-122-130-203-212-213-221-222-230-313.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...72
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