382
FXUS64 KLZK 200517 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1117 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
-WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY AGAIN TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-COOLER AIR FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-LOW RAIN CHANCES FRI-SAT, WITH LITTLE QPF EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL BE INCREASING WILDFIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A STRONG
SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM KANSAS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ENHANCED BY THE
SFC CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, S/SW WINDS WILL REALLY PICK
UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND AS RH VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 25
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, THE WILDFIRE THREAT WILL REALLY CLIMB. IN
AREAS WHERE RH VALUES WON'T BE CRITICALLY LOW, STRONG WINDS WILL
STILL BE SEEN AND WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH WHILE THE SFC LOW
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WILL MARK THE END OF THE THIS PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY WITH THE
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER,
LIMITING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SFC, A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY S/SE ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY.
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN OUT OF THE
N-NW OVER THE STATE AS DEEP TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. SFC RIDGING WILL SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN US AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. A FEW
NIGHTS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN BEFORE
H500 RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE INCREASING A BIT
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE TO N/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN AR MAY SEE WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
NORM WITH SOME CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR
TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 78 39 59 41 / 20 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 79 45 67 47 / 10 0 20 30
HARRISON AR 74 32 56 37 / 10 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 42 64 44 / 10 0 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 43 61 44 / 10 0 10 40
MONTICELLO AR 78 48 68 49 / 0 10 20 40
MOUNT IDA AR 78 39 64 43 / 10 0 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 32 56 36 / 10 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 75 40 58 43 / 20 0 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 77 45 64 46 / 10 0 20 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 38 63 43 / 10 0 10 20
SEARCY AR 78 39 60 41 / 20 0 10 30
STUTTGART AR 75 44 61 45 / 10 0 10 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...67
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