157
FXUS64 KLZK 070601
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1201 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A RISK
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEARING DAILY RECORDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..THROUGH FRI NIGHT
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACRS WRN AR, AHEAD
OF ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE CLUSTERED CONVECTION OVER ERN OK. THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PD, A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WX THREAT WL BE MAINTAINED AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
CDFRNT, PER RECENT CAM GUIDANCE. WRM ADVECTION AND INCRSG SFC
MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SFC-BASED STORM POTENTIAL INTO THE LATER
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, W/ MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG, COINCIDING W/ A LLJ
AND ELONGATED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING A FEW
TORNADOES, OR AT LEAST THE NEED FOR A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS.
..SATURDAY
BY SAT MRNG, LINGERING CONVECTION FM THE OVERNIGHT PD WL BE MOVING
ACRS CNTRL AR, AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE PICKED UP AND REINVIGORATED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFRNT. GIVEN INCRSG BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
FRNT, CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER SRN TO SERN
AR, ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE
SEGMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE
SAT AFTN TO EVNG. UPPER SHEAR PROFILES WL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
W/ MORE ZONAL H500 FLOW IN PLACE, AND PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD
INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SURGING REGIONS OF THE MCS, AND
SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. QLCS TORNADO POTENTIAL WL NON-ZERO, BUT
MOSTLY MARGINAL GIVEN WRLY SHEAR VECTORS MAINLY PARALLEL TO FCST
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS.
THAT BEING SAID, HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE WRLY SHEAR PROFILES AND TRAINING POTENTIAL. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF MEAN QPF VALUES B/W 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ACRS
CNTRL TO SERN AR, W/ 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 TO 4
INCHES, AND PROB EXCEEDANCE OF 3 INCHES NEAR 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN AR THRU SAT EVNG. MOST OF THE REGION IS STILL WELL
ENTRENCHED IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS, SO ANY RAINFALL COULD BE LARGELY
BENEFICIAL, THOUGH STILL DORMANT VEGETATION COUPLED W/ SIGNIFICANT
TRAINING CONVECTION COULD YIELD SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THRU
SAT AFTN TO EVNG.
..REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THRU THE END OF THE WEEKEND, A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY SUN, W/ THE CDFRNT WASHING OUT OVER SERN AR, AND
DRIVING HIGHER POPS OVER FAR SERN AR. SRLY SFC FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY
RESUME BY MON, W/ INCRSG COVG OF POPS FOR MUCH OF STATE BY MON AFTN
TO EVNG. QUICK RECOVERY OF SFC MOISTURE, AND A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACRS THE OZARK PLATEAU COULD YIELD SOME ORGANIZED STORM
POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW END FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MON.
TUES THRU WED, ATTENTION WL TURN TOWARDS A CUTOFF H500 LOW OVER THE
BAJA OF CA, THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO MOVE BACK INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE CONUS, AND TRANSLATE ENEWRD, EJECTING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
MID-SOUTH. SFC CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWRD ACRS THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE REGION, W/ RICH BL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SRN
CNTRL US. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF H500 PATTERN SOLNS HAVE TRENDED NWRDS,
WHICH WOULD POSITION FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER THE
FA THRU THE TUES/WED TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WL MAINTAIN MESSAGING ABOUT
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THRU MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT
UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN CONCERNING FINER DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE W/ THIS
ACTIVITY, CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING WL BE DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL THRU THE WEEKEND. LATEST NBM5.0 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 50-75TH
PERCENTILE QPF OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THRU THE
TUES-WED TIMEFRAME. IF HIGHER-END RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THEN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEYOND WED AND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK, A STRONG CDFRNT IS PROGGED
TO CLEAR THE STATE TO THE SE, W/ MUCH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN,
RESULTING IN SEASONAL TEMPS AND SETTLED WEATHER CONDNS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE STATE. CONDS SHOULD GO FROM VFR TO IFR WITH CIG'S
DROPPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH VIS DECREASING. WIND SHEAR IS
MENTIONED AT MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD
TERMINALS FROM W TO E. CONDS MAY NOT BE REDUCED OVER SE SITES
UNTIL SAT AM. TRAILING SHRA ARE EXPECTED BEHIND TSRA WITH GRADUAL
DECREASE IN PRECIP FROM W TO E ON SAT/SAT PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SW TO NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR TO END THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 64 76 47 / 20 90 90 40
CAMDEN AR 85 65 76 56 / 50 80 100 70
HARRISON AR 76 58 68 40 / 40 100 70 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 63 75 51 / 40 90 90 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 66 76 52 / 20 90 90 70
MONTICELLO AR 84 67 78 59 / 20 60 100 80
MOUNT IDA AR 79 61 75 48 / 50 100 90 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 60 70 41 / 20 100 80 20
NEWPORT AR 82 66 75 50 / 20 80 100 50
PINE BLUFF AR 86 64 76 54 / 20 80 100 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 63 75 48 / 40 90 80 40
SEARCY AR 82 63 76 48 / 20 90 100 60
STUTTGART AR 85 66 75 53 / 10 80 100 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...70
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