787
FXUS64 KLZK 090554
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
- CONSECUTIVE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK, WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BUSY WEATHER, A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP IS ON DECK
FOR MUCH OF THE FA ON SUN. RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED
LINGERING PRECIP STILL MOVING SEWRD ACRS SRN AR. THRU THE DAY, A
CDFRNT WL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWRD TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS VCTY, W/ MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE, ALBEIT BRIEFLY.
MON, CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WL RESUME AS STRONG SRLY
SFC FLOW RETURNS, AND GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE SRN CNTRL US. ALOFT, A 50 KT JET
STREAK IS PROGGED TO MANEUVER THRU MEAN WRLY FLOW, SUPPLYING AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS OVER MODEST BUOYANCY MON AFTN. RAP
POINT FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES W/ SBCAPE
NEAR 1500 J/KG AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING HAIL
GROWTH. FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGELY LINEAR GIVEN WRLY FLOW ALOFT, W/
SOME LOW LEVEL CURVATURE POSSIBLE WHERE SFC WINDS ARE MOST BACKED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE PARAMETER SPACE, W/ HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS.
TUES THRU WED, ATTENTION WL TURN TOWARDS A CUTOFF H500 LOW OVER THE
BAJA OF CA. THIS UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EWRD OVER THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, CONGEALING INTO AN EXTENSION OF BROADER TROUGHING
OVER THE CONT DIVIDE. LATEST SOLNS OF GFS/ECMWF H500 MASS FIELDS
CONT TO ADVERTISE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROF QUICKLY EJECTING ACRS THE
ARKLATEX THRU THE MID-WEEK, W/ STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREADING
ANTECEDENT RICH BL MOISTURE. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING TIMING OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES. TUES, THE FA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FALL ON THE UNFAVORABLE SIDE OF TIMING IN
RELATION TO ARRIVAL AND OVERLAP OF SEVERE INGREDIENTS, GENERALLY
AFTER 00Z TUES NIGHT, THOUGH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TO NWRN HALF OF THE STATE GIVEN THE FCST
ENVIRONMENT.
WED, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO COME INTO PHASE W/ AN APPROACHING
CDFRNT ASCTD W/ UPPER MIDWEST SFC CYCLONIC FLOW. AS OF NOW, BNDRY
PARALLEL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AND
UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AN MCS, MOVING W/ THE
CDFRNT ACRS THE REGION WED AFTN.
DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTIES W/ THIS NEXT SYSTEM, WL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE ABOUT CONSECUTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THRU THE MID-WEEK
OVER MUCH OF AR.
CONCERNING RAINFALL THRU THE MID-WEEK, 50-75TH PERCENTILE QPF SOLNS
SUGGEST 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, W/ GREATER TOTALS
POSSIBLE OVER WRN AR AND WHERE OVERLAP OF TUES-WED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OCCURS. BASED ON OBSERVED RAINFALL FM SAT, FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS SHOULD STAY ISOLATED TO WHERE THE GREATEST ANTECEDENT
TOTALS OCCURRED, E.G. PORTIONS OF WRN TO NWRN AR.
BEYOND WED AND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK, A PATTERN SHIFT WL UNFOLD,
AS A STRONG CDFRNT CLEARS THE STATE TO THE SE, W/ MUCH DRIER AIR
SETTLING IN. MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND SETTLED WEATHER CONDNS
SHOULD RESUME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE THROUGH MORNING HOURS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNSET ACROSS THOSE AREAS. AS THE LOW STRATUS MOVES NORTH, FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED. A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE STATE
AROUND MID MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 15Z. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE,
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 64 80 64 / 40 10 40 70
CAMDEN AR 77 64 81 64 / 80 20 20 40
HARRISON AR 78 63 80 58 / 20 0 50 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 64 78 63 / 80 30 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 65 80 65 / 70 20 30 60
MONTICELLO AR 77 66 83 67 / 90 30 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 75 64 78 62 / 70 30 50 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 78 62 81 60 / 20 0 40 90
NEWPORT AR 75 65 80 66 / 60 20 40 70
PINE BLUFF AR 76 65 81 65 / 90 30 20 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 77 63 81 64 / 40 20 50 90
SEARCY AR 76 62 81 64 / 70 20 40 70
STUTTGART AR 75 65 79 66 / 80 30 20 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...76
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