040
FXUS64 KLZK 100510
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY; LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY; LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK WAS OVERSPREADING THE STATE FROM THE S THIS
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS WELL UNDERWAY. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW PTS RANGED FROM UPPER
40S (NRN AR) TO LOWER 60S (SRN AR).
TODAY, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
STATE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S. DEW PT TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CREEP INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S
OVER THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. STORMS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SW AR, ELEVATED IN NATURE, POSING A LARGE HAIL
THREAT WITH STORMS FOLLOWING THE MEAN WIND FROM THE W. SBCIN SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING STORMS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWRD. EBWD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-45 KTS, SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE PROFILES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD DRIVE
THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MIDDAY
HODOGRAPHS FEATURE MODEST CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST PORTION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE POSING A LOW END CHANCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO BUT
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVIATE SERLY MOVING CELLS. THE BULK OF
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO FAR E AND SE AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THESE STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO A COMPLEX OR CLUSTER
OF STORMS. THE MAIN AREAS TO BE IMPACTED BY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE THE SE HALF OF AR. RAIN CHANCES DRAMATICALLY DECREASE
ACROSS NW AND N-CNTRL AR.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE SCALE
BACKGROUND ASCENT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AR WILL RESIDE FULLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-1KM AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 150
M2/S2 AND 200 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. EBWD IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
FROM 30 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 60 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. IF STORMS CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION ATOP A TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THINKING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ROBUST
LEADING TO STORMS QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER OR QLCS.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE WEDNESDAY. WHERE STORMS
TRAIN, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-3" IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF AR.
LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
COOLEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S
AND 60S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS.
THEREAFTER, TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SWRLY SURFACE WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE
E.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL
BECOME DEGRADED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN TERMS OF CIGS AS MVFR AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST SITES ON TUESDAY
MIDDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SITES WILL EXPERIENCE CIGS WHICH WILL
LIFT INTO VFR LATER TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE OF ARKANSAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT THE SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SURFACE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 65 72 39 / 40 70 100 20
CAMDEN AR 81 64 75 43 / 50 50 100 70
HARRISON AR 80 62 70 36 / 30 80 100 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 62 72 41 / 60 80 100 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 65 73 42 / 50 70 100 50
MONTICELLO AR 82 67 79 47 / 30 30 90 80
MOUNT IDA AR 78 62 74 39 / 70 90 100 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 62 71 36 / 20 80 100 0
NEWPORT AR 79 66 72 42 / 40 70 100 40
PINE BLUFF AR 81 65 75 43 / 40 50 100 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 80 64 74 39 / 60 80 100 20
SEARCY AR 80 63 73 40 / 50 70 100 40
STUTTGART AR 80 66 74 43 / 40 60 100 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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