088
FXUS64 KLZK 100718 CCA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
.ADDED AN ADDITIONAL KEY MESSAGE ABOUT TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY; LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN EXPANSION
FIELD OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. THE LOW STRATUS
FIELD IS DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE STATE FROM A NEARLY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/ CUTOFF LOW
LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN
THE LOWER 70S MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE RANGED FROM LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE STATE WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD
OF THE STATE.
A DRY START TO TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE STATE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ANALYSIS OF BUFKIT,DESI,
AND OTHER SHORT TERM HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STORMS THAT
DUE FORM WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO AMPLE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IN LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THE COMBINATION
OF SB & MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL DRIVE THE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT,
DESI, AND OTHER HI- RES MODELS SHOWS MODEST CLOCKWISE CURVATURE
WITH THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE POSING A LOW THREAT FOR
ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.
THE STORMS THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE A TORNADO WOULD
BE THOSE WHO DEVIATE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MEAN FLOW. THERE IS
ALSO A MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST, WESTERN, CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS DUE
TO THE THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" INCHES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
ARKANSAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE
CLEARING THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
50-60 KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT WILL
INCREASE FROM 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY OF 30 KTS TO OVER 50 KT AND CAPE VALUES IN THE
500-1000J/KG ALONG WITH ROBUST ASCENT/FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO STORMS QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
QLCS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH
A SECONDARY RISK OF HAIL THROUGH THE THREAT IS LOW. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE STATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MORE THAN HALF OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREE PLUS BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL
BECOME DEGRADED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN TERMS OF CIGS AS MVFR AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST SITES ON TUESDAY
MIDDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SITES WILL EXPERIENCE CIGS WHICH WILL
LIFT INTO VFR LATER TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE OF ARKANSAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT THE SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SURFACE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 65 72 39 / 40 70 100 20
CAMDEN AR 81 64 75 43 / 50 50 100 70
HARRISON AR 80 62 70 36 / 30 80 100 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 62 72 41 / 60 80 100 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 65 73 42 / 50 70 100 50
MONTICELLO AR 82 67 79 47 / 30 30 90 80
MOUNT IDA AR 78 62 74 39 / 70 90 100 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 62 71 36 / 20 80 100 0
NEWPORT AR 79 66 72 42 / 40 70 100 40
PINE BLUFF AR 81 65 75 43 / 40 50 100 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 80 64 74 39 / 60 80 100 20
SEARCY AR 80 63 73 40 / 50 70 100 40
STUTTGART AR 80 66 74 43 / 40 60 100 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...74
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