323
FXUS64 KLZK 110547
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY; LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN EXPANSION
FIELD OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. THE LOW STRATUS
FIELD IS DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE STATE FROM A NEARLY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/ CUTOFF LOW
LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN
THE LOWER 70S MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE RANGED FROM LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE STATE WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD
OF THE STATE.
A DRY START TO TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE STATE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ANALYSIS OF BUFKIT,DESI,
AND OTHER SHORT TERM HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STORMS THAT
DUE FORM WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO AMPLE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IN LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THE COMBINATION
OF SB & MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL DRIVE THE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT,
DESI, AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS SHOWS MODEST CLOCKWISE CURVATURE
WITH THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE POSING A LOW THREAT FOR
ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.
THE STORMS THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE A TORNADO WOULD
BE THOSE WHO DEVIATE SOUTHEAST OF THE MEAN FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A
MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST,
WESTERN, CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS DUE TO THE
THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" INCHES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
ARKANSAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE
CLEARING THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
50-60 KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT WILL
INCREASE FROM 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY OF 30 KTS TO OVER 50 KT AND CAPE VALUES IN THE
500-1000J/KG ALONG WITH ROBUST ASCENT/FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO STORMS QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
QLCS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH
A SECONDARY RISK OF HAIL THROUGH THE THREAT IS LOW. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE STATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MORE THAN HALF OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATES THAT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREE PLUS BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CIGS AND POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL ENTER ARKANSAS AFTER 06Z FIRST IMPACTING NORTHERN TERMINALS
AROUND 07Z, CENTRAL TERMINALS AND KPBR AROUND 10Z, AND KLLQ AROUND
18Z. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE WITH WINDS VEERING FROM S/SW TO N/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 74 38 61 42 / 90 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 75 41 63 38 / 100 40 0 0
HARRISON AR 70 34 61 45 / 90 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 39 63 41 / 90 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 40 61 42 / 90 30 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 79 43 61 41 / 90 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 74 38 64 41 / 90 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 35 61 43 / 90 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 73 38 58 42 / 90 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 75 40 60 40 / 100 50 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 37 64 41 / 80 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 75 38 61 38 / 100 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 74 40 58 42 / 90 40 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76
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