161
FXUS64 KLZK 110638
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
138 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, CURRENTLY, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
-A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING PUSHING ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DAMAGING
WIND AND EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE LINE
-IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR A FROST AND
POSSIBLE FREEZE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
-EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL BOTH OFFER A BETTER CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS
CURRENTLY
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AS OF 1:30 AM CDT, A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. THE STORMS CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND EMBEDDED
TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE LINE, BUT ARE ENCOUNTERING A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND CIN AS THE QLCS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE SEVERE RISK
OVERALL REMAINS SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OVERALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS IS BEING SPECIFICALLY DRIVEN BY QLCS MESOSCALE DYNAMICS IN
TERMS OF DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WHICH IS MENTIONED
BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WEDNESDAY:
A PARAMETER SPACE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE WITH 35 TO
50 KNOTS WINDS IN PLACE AT 850 MB OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCAPE
VALUES WHICH WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE FROM 1,500 J/KG TO
3,000 J/KG JUST HOURS AGO HAVE NOW BEEN SUPPRESSED TO A LOCALIZED
POCKET OF 1,500 J/KG TO 2,000 J/KG RUNNING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
MENA TO RUSSELLVILLE TO MOUNTAIN VIEW TO HARDY. IT IS TO BE NOTED
THAT THIS POCKET OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED OR SHRINK
DUE TO TWO LARGE REGIONS OF MUCIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. QLCS TORNADOGENESIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE 0-3KM MLCAPE IS GREATER THAN
40 J/KG AND BULK WIND SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON PROGRESS THE QLCS MAKES ACROSS THE
STATE AS LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS MAY
HAVE AMPLE TIME TO BECOME UNSTABLE ONCE MORE AIDED BY AN INCREASE OF
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WITHIN
THE QLCS WILL REMAIN AS THE LINE OF STORMS DOES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE. SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS WILL ENCOUNTER PARAMETER SPACE IN WHICH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES FOLLOWED BY
POCKETS IN WHICH SEGMENTS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
NOTED IS A SHIELD OF RAIN ACTIVITY WHICH FORMED AHEAD OF PARENT LINE
AND MAY DIMINISH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE QLCS MOVES FURTHER
INTO ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL IN PLACE
OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FROST (TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 33 AND 36
DEGREES) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND A LIMITED AREA OF A FREEZE (TEMPERATURES OF 32 DEGREES
OR LESS) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE TEMPERATURE TREND AFTER
THURSDAY WILL BE ONE WHICH WILL SEE A NUDGE OF TEMPERATURES UPWARD
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ACROSS ARKANSAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE OVERALL. QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A DIGGING TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-WEST
REGION OF THE CONUS WITH FLOW OVER ARKANSAS REMAINING PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE SFC, AN OVERWHELMINGLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PLACING A SMALL WINDOW FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX TO OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, BUT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND
THIS POSSIBLE WINTRY ACTIVITY WOULD BE FIGHTING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND ANY RAIN-SNOW MIX MAY BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS, BUT WILL ONLY BE IN THE CARDS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
A MUCH LARGER PORTION OF ARKANSAS, BUT SPECIFICS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE SIGNAL DOES PRESENT ITSELF GIVEN
THE COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CIGS AND POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL ENTER ARKANSAS AFTER 06Z FIRST IMPACTING NORTHERN TERMINALS
AROUND 07Z, CENTRAL TERMINALS AND KPBF AROUND 10Z, AND KLLQ
AROUND 18Z. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE WITH WINDS VEERING FROM S/SW
TO N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. LLWS IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 74 38 61 42 / 90 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 75 41 63 38 / 100 40 0 0
HARRISON AR 70 34 61 45 / 90 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 39 63 41 / 90 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 40 61 42 / 90 30 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 79 43 61 41 / 90 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 74 38 64 41 / 90 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 35 61 43 / 90 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 73 38 58 42 / 90 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 75 40 60 40 / 100 50 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 37 64 41 / 80 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 75 38 61 38 / 100 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 74 40 58 42 / 90 40 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...76
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