773
FXUS64 KLZK 111108
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
608 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
-A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING PUSHING ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DAMAGING
WIND AND EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE LINE
-IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR A FROST AND
POSSIBLE FREEZE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
-EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL BOTH OFFER A BETTER CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WEDNESDAY:
A PARAMETER SPACE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE WITH 35 TO
50 KNOTS WINDS IN PLACE AT 850 MB OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCAPE
VALUES WHICH WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE FROM 1,500 J/KG TO
3,000 J/KG JUST HOURS AGO HAVE NOW BEEN SUPPRESSED TO A LOCALIZED
POCKET OF 1,500 J/KG TO 2,000 J/KG RUNNING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
MENA TO RUSSELLVILLE TO MOUNTAIN VIEW TO HARDY. IT IS TO BE NOTED
THAT THIS POCKET OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED OR SHRINK
DUE TO TWO LARGE REGIONS OF MUCIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. QLCS TORNADOGENESIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE 0-3KM MLCAPE IS GREATER THAN
40 J/KG AND BULK WIND SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON PROGRESS THE QLCS MAKES ACROSS THE
STATE AS LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS MAY
HAVE AMPLE TIME TO BECOME UNSTABLE ONCE MORE AIDED BY AN INCREASE OF
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WITHIN
THE QLCS WILL REMAIN AS THE LINE OF STORMS DOES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE. SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS WILL ENCOUNTER PARAMETER SPACE IN WHICH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES FOLLOWED BY
POCKETS IN WHICH SEGMENTS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
NOTED IS A SHIELD OF RAIN ACTIVITY WHICH FORMED AHEAD OF PARENT LINE
AND MAY DIMINISH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE QLCS MOVES FURTHER
INTO ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL IN PLACE
OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FROST (TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 33 AND 36
DEGREES) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND A LIMITED AREA OF A FREEZE (TEMPERATURES OF 32 DEGREES
OR LESS) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE TEMPERATURE TREND AFTER
THURSDAY WILL BE ONE WHICH WILL SEE A NUDGE OF TEMPERATURES UPWARD
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ACROSS ARKANSAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE OVERALL. QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A DIGGING TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-WEST
REGION OF THE CONUS WITH FLOW OVER ARKANSAS REMAINING PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE SFC, AN OVERWHELMINGLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PLACING A SMALL WINDOW FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX TO OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, BUT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND
THIS POSSIBLE WINTRY ACTIVITY WOULD BE FIGHTING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND ANY RAIN-SNOW MIX MAY BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS, BUT WILL ONLY BE IN THE CARDS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
A MUCH LARGER PORTION OF ARKANSAS, BUT SPECIFICS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE SIGNAL DOES PRESENT ITSELF GIVEN
THE COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
OVER FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS VEER FROM S/SW TO N/NW WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KLLQ, WHICH MAY NOT LIFT ABOVE MVFR
TILL AT OR JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS AND
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 35 61 42 / 90 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 72 39 62 39 / 100 40 0 0
HARRISON AR 66 33 61 44 / 90 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 37 62 41 / 90 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 38 61 41 / 90 30 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 76 41 61 41 / 90 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 73 36 64 42 / 90 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 33 60 43 / 90 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 72 37 57 42 / 90 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 39 59 40 / 100 50 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 37 64 41 / 80 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 72 36 60 38 / 100 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 71 39 58 42 / 90 40 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...76
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