844
FXUS64 KLZK 120438
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1138 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
-IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR A FROST AND
POSSIBLE FREEZE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
-EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL BOTH OFFER A BETTER CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DROP SE OF THE CWA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS. MOST PRECIP WILL THEN END AS THE FRONT EXITS.
THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR WX HAS MOVED EAST...AND DRY/COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THU. REMOVED THE KEY MESSAGE ABOVE MENTIONING
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE THREAT HAS DECREASED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WEDNESDAY:
A PARAMETER SPACE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE WITH 35 TO
50 KNOTS WINDS IN PLACE AT 850 MB OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCAPE
VALUES WHICH WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE FROM 1,500 J/KG TO
3,000 J/KG JUST HOURS AGO HAVE NOW BEEN SUPPRESSED TO A LOCALIZED
POCKET OF 1,500 J/KG TO 2,000 J/KG RUNNING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
MENA TO RUSSELLVILLE TO MOUNTAIN VIEW TO HARDY. IT IS TO BE NOTED
THAT THIS POCKET OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED OR SHRINK
DUE TO TWO LARGE REGIONS OF MUCIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. QLCS TORNADOGENESIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE 0-3KM MLCAPE IS GREATER THAN
40 J/KG AND BULK WIND SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON PROGRESS THE QLCS MAKES ACROSS THE
STATE AS LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS MAY
HAVE AMPLE TIME TO BECOME UNSTABLE ONCE MORE AIDED BY AN INCREASE OF
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WITHIN
THE QLCS WILL REMAIN AS THE LINE OF STORMS DOES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE. SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS WILL ENCOUNTER PARAMETER SPACE IN WHICH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES FOLLOWED BY
POCKETS IN WHICH SEGMENTS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
NOTED IS A SHIELD OF RAIN ACTIVITY WHICH FORMED AHEAD OF PARENT LINE
AND MAY DIMINISH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE QLCS MOVES FURTHER
INTO ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL IN PLACE
OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FROST (TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 33 AND 36
DEGREES) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND A LIMITED AREA OF A FREEZE (TEMPERATURES OF 32 DEGREES
OR LESS) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE TEMPERATURE TREND AFTER
THURSDAY WILL BE ONE WHICH WILL SEE A NUDGE OF TEMPERATURES UPWARD
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ACROSS ARKANSAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE OVERALL. QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A DIGGING TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-WEST
REGION OF THE CONUS WITH FLOW OVER ARKANSAS REMAINING PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE SFC, AN OVERWHELMINGLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PLACING A SMALL WINDOW FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX TO OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, BUT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND
THIS POSSIBLE WINTRY ACTIVITY WOULD BE FIGHTING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND ANY RAIN-SNOW MIX MAY BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS, BUT WILL ONLY BE IN THE CARDS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
A MUCH LARGER PORTION OF ARKANSAS, BUT SPECIFICS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE SIGNAL DOES PRESENT ITSELF GIVEN
THE COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY, GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE NOTED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
OF KHRO AND KBPK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 36 60 43 / 90 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 65 38 61 39 / 100 50 0 0
HARRISON AR 67 33 60 45 / 70 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 37 61 41 / 90 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 39 60 42 / 90 30 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 69 41 60 41 / 100 90 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 67 36 63 42 / 90 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 33 60 43 / 80 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 70 38 57 42 / 100 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 70 39 58 40 / 100 60 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 36 63 41 / 80 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 69 36 59 39 / 100 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 68 38 57 41 / 100 50 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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