660
FXUS64 KLZK 121125
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
-EARLY THIS MORNING, A SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR A FROST AND
POSSIBLE FREEZE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
-AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS THE STATE
-A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE
-EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL BOTH OFFER A BETTER CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THURSDAY (TODAY)/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, THE H500 PATTERN WILL BEGIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER
ARKANSAS AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OF THE CONUS AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION OF THE CONUS. THE FLOW PATTERN OVER ARKANSAS BY LATE WEEK
WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE STATE AS THE TROF FEATURE CONTINUES
WELL EAST OF THE REGION. AT THE SFC, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER THIS PERIOD. THE DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE FELT THIS MORNING AS FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR EVEN FREEZE
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY AND BECOME ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL ASSIST IN A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A H500 TROF BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
MID-WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS,
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, SOUTHWESTERN IOWA, AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
00Z GUIDANCE FROM MULTIPLE MODELS IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE HAVE HINTED AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR OPENING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1,000 AND
1,500 J/KG AND 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL BE CRITICAL IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS MODELS HAVE FLUCTUATED THE PAST
FEW RUNS ON TIMING. AN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EVENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD FAVOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP, BUT IF THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED, THEN INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND A LIFTING MECHANISM
WOULD BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICK MOVING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX WHICH MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN ARKANSAS AS THE MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO BE PRESENT FOR A FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AND THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
SOLUTION GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS. IN RESPONSE OVER ARKANSAS,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVERALL. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WHEN FREEZE
AND FROST PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE STATE AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE STEEP COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STICK AROUND ON BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVERALL TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOTED THAT ANY VEGETATION PLANTED
OR LEFT OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR MOVED INDOORS (IF
ABLE) OR WILL BE LIKELY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. SOME
LLWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BE NOTED
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 43 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 39 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 45 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 42 71 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 42 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 43 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 43 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 43 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 41 70 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 41 74 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 39 70 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 42 68 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...76
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