018
FXUS64 KLZK 280603
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
103 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE STATE TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
- NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING (NORTH AR)
- VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED IS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING WILD
FIRE THREAT
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID/LATE WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AR EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WERE HOLDING IN THE 60S AND 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE N TODAY WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPS (40S/50S) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME N/NERLY
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS 25-35 MPH. WHILE WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THESE SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE
OVER THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDY
SKIES, FALLING TEMPS, BLUSTERY WINDS, AND SCATTERED PRECIP WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH COLDER BY LATE AFTERNOON THAN COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH WEAK WNW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
USHER DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK OVER NRN AR HOWEVER
ELEVATED WINDS AND MAX RH VALUES REMAINING IN THE 50-60% RANGE
SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. IF YOU HAPPEN TO HAVE SENSITIVE
PLANTS OUTDOORS ACROSS NRN AR IT IS A BEST PRACTICE TO BRING THEM
INSIDE SHOULD READINGS FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY
SWITCHING WINDS LOCALLY TO THE E. GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE (MIN
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 10%-20% RANGE) AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL, THE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME S/SWRLY AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO MODIFY. ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FOR A COUPLE
DAYS, PROLONGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ACROSS AR. HIGHS DURING THIS
PERIOD OF TIME MAY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON BY TUESDAY. ZONAL
PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION TO SWRLY FLOW AS A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHS DIG ACROSS THE SW CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HAVE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SW INTO TX. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FAVORS FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION TO TIMING BEING OFF, A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH A
PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHAT THESE SYSTEMS COULD BRING TO THE
STATE IS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
ASCTD LOWER CLOUD COVER WAS SEEN MOVING SEWRD ACRS CNTRL TO SRN AR
NEAR 06Z FRI NIGHT. THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, EXPECT CLOUDS AND ASCTD
PRECIP OVER CNTRL AR TO DISSIPATE, W/ MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BY 12Z SAT MRNG. NRLY WINDS WL BRIEFLY INCRS FM 10-15Z ACRS THE
FA, W/ WINDS WEAKENING BY SAT AFTN. VFR CONDNS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU
THE PD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 61 42 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 66 43 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 62 43 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 43 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 43 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 65 45 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 65 43 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 41 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 60 42 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 62 43 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 42 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 62 39 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 62 44 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...72
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