269
FXUS64 KLZK 281639
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- NEAR FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
- VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED IS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASED WILD
FIRE THREAT
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID/LATE WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CURRENTLY, SKIES RANGED FROM MOSTLY CLEAR (NRN AR) TO OVERCAST (SRN
AR) AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SHIFTS SWRD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN AR.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH DAYLIGHT.
PREDAWN TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY DAYLIGHT,
PORTIONS OF NRN AR MAY SEE TEMPS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK ALONG
THE NRN MOST ROW OF COUNTIES IN AR.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS MORNING, HOWEVER WITH DRY AND
COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE, HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 15-25% RANGE COMBINED WITH
VERY DRY FUELS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. WHILE SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED 10 KTS, THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
FUELS WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR WILDFIRES TO IGNITE AND SPREAD
QUICKLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS THEREFORE NOT RECOMMENDED.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME S/SWRLY AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO MODIFY. ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM WNWRLY TO
ZONAL FOR A COUPLE DAYS, PROLONGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ACROSS
AR. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE
80S.
SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ZONAL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OUT OF THE PAC NW
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ON WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK
TO THE SW THROUGH TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FAVORS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS AR WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO TIMING
BEING OFF, A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOULD LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH PASSING
SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 1") IS
INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST 30-60%
OF GREATER THAN 2" RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF AR AND 10-20% OF GREATER THAN 3" RAINFALL ACROSS A SMALLER
FOOTPRINT OF AR. WHILE THESE PROBABILITIES SEEM LOW AT THE
MOMENT, REMEMBER WE ARE STILL FIVE-SEVEN DAYS OUT FROM THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY ON SUNDAY. ALL SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, THIS HAS BEEN CAPTURED
BY TEMPO GROUPS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GREATLY LAX ACROSS
ALL SITES BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 42 75 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 43 78 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 43 75 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 77 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 76 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 45 78 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 43 77 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 41 75 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 42 73 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 43 76 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 42 77 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 39 75 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 44 75 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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