486
FXUS64 KLZK 310528
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1228 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
- STORMS POSSIBLE SAT/SAT NIGHT, SOME BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
LOW STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. PREDAWN TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. TODAY, TEMPS WILL MODIFY AS S/SW
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THESE READINGS ARE
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE TO FEW DAYS.
ON WEDNESDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PAC NW AND
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NOTABLE CHANGES FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THE LACK OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DIPPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE N, INSTEAD THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
N OF THE STATE INTO CNTRL MO PLUS THE ENTIRE SHORT WAVE HAS SLOWED A
BIT. THE FACT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT BECOME STATIONARY IN AR
COUPLED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW WITH THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE LIKEWISE DECREASED DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT/WARM FRONT
PLACEMENT FURTHER N.
FRIDAY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS A IN-BETWEEN DAY (LULL) FROM THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TO THE E AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE
PAC NW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY, HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT IN TOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NW MO/SE KS/N & CNTRL OK/
CNTRL TX (FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING) BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY
SWEEPS EWRD. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY OVER NW HALF OF AR BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE SE HALF OF AR BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM PROMOTING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ORGANIZED
STRONGER STORMS. MODELED THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC TO WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BUT WE WILL BE
MONITORING THESE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WORTH WATCHING/MONITORING.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT
FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20-40% OF
GREATER THAN 2" RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW AR WITH
40-70% OF 1" OR GREATER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM NW TO SE. COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVER NRN AR SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SUNRISE. SOME LOW STRATUS WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SW IN SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTH BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME LLWS WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET. THIS SHEAR MAY BUILD DOWN
INTO CENTRAL AR BUT LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT THEM OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 84 64 84 67 / 0 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 85 62 85 65 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 83 63 83 65 / 0 20 40 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 62 84 64 / 0 0 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 64 84 66 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 85 64 84 66 / 10 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 83 62 83 64 / 0 10 10 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 62 84 65 / 0 20 30 40
NEWPORT AR 84 65 85 68 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 85 63 85 66 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 85 63 85 66 / 0 10 20 40
SEARCY AR 85 61 84 64 / 0 0 10 20
STUTTGART AR 84 65 84 67 / 0 0 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78
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