149
FXUS64 KLZK 021125
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
+ ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
+ AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE MAJORITY FALLING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
+ MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.
LINE IS MOVING INTO A MUCH LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. RATHER STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 60S AROUND SUNRISE.
LOW PRESSURE, OVER NE KANSAS THIS MORNING, WILL RACE OFF QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY KEEPING THE CWA IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. AFTER A
WARM START TO THE DAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH WHILE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS
MORNING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL STAY ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEAR TO
FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
NO HEADLINES PLANNED THIS MORNING BUT A WARY EYE WILL KEPT ON THE
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING,
PRIMARILY OVER THE WEST, DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE ADVANCING
BOUNDARY AND WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE FALLING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. THE SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE
AND QPF WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE WEST TO A LITTLE
OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE SE.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURN TO THE CWA STARTING SUNDAY AS DEVELOPING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PLACES THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK WAVE
CAUGHT UP IN THE PREVAILING FLOW MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
FRAME APPEARS DRY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE EAST WITH
TIME.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERNS RETURNING EVEN
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
APPROACHING SHOWERS FROM THE W BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CIGS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH BUT SOME
LOWER VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO PERSIST.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BEFORE OUR NEXT ROUND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 67 83 62 / 70 40 60 80
CAMDEN AR 81 65 85 64 / 60 10 60 50
HARRISON AR 79 64 81 54 / 80 50 60 100
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 65 83 59 / 70 30 60 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 67 84 64 / 60 30 60 70
MONTICELLO AR 82 68 85 68 / 40 10 50 40
MOUNT IDA AR 80 65 82 57 / 80 40 60 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 64 82 56 / 80 60 60 90
NEWPORT AR 81 68 84 63 / 60 40 60 80
PINE BLUFF AR 81 66 85 65 / 50 20 60 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 65 83 60 / 80 50 70 90
SEARCY AR 81 65 84 62 / 60 30 60 80
STUTTGART AR 81 68 84 66 / 60 20 60 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...78
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page