869
FXUS64 KLZK 152256
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
556 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
-ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE WEDS MID-AFTERNOON
-RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED EVENING INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY
-COOL DOWN AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A LINGERING LINE OF T'STORMS IS WEAKENING ACROSS NW AR EARLY WEDS
MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA THROUGH PRE-SUNRISE
HOURS. BY SUNRISE POPS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX PULL TO THE NORTH.
RAIN AND T'STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDS AFTERNOON
AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A SHALLOW H500 TROUGH
ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF DRY LINE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO TX WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND TAILING
DOWN TO NORTHERN AR BY MID-AFTERNOON. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP
TORNADO RISK LOW WITH EARLY DEVELOPMENT. HAILERS AND SPLITTING CELLS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF DEVELOPMENT CAN TAIL FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AR.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING WEDS
AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR W BY LATE-AFTERNOON WEDS. AS THESE
STORMS PUSH OFF THE DRYLINE THEY WILL BECOME MORE UPSCALE. IF THESE
CAN REMAIN ROOTED ALONG THE SURFACE A BRIEF ALL HAZARDS SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NW AR BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE
LINE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND LOSES MUCH OF ITS ORGANIZATION.
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED EARLY THURS MORNING AS STORMS RUN
INTO A VERY STABLE SFC TO 700MB LAYER IN ESTRN AR.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN DIMINISH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURS AND FRI. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE LIKELY ON FRI.
INTO THE WEEKEND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING TO NEUTRAL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE PEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. QPFS >1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP
SAT INTO SUN.
BEHIND THE CLDFRNT TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL SUN INTO MON, AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE STATE.
AREAS THAT DODGE SHOWERS THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DRY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD WINDS REMAIN SRTHLY BUT RATHER BENIGN
AROUND 8-10KTS WITH FEW TO NO GUSTS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE UPPER END
OF FIRE WX RISK, BUT THE CRITICAL MIN RHS AND WHERE MEANINGFULLY RAIN
FALLS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER INTO THE WEEK.
BY TUES NEXT WEEK SRTHLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND
BEGIN INCREASING MIN RH VALUES TO ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
EXPECT THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS OF KLIT, KHOT, AND KADF TO
HAVE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, ADDITIONALLY VSBY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY ACROSS ALL SITES ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A COMPLEX OF SHRA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS FOR THE TERMINALS OF KHRO, KBPK, AND KLIT TO
BEGIN THE FORECAST AND LATER THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF
VCTS WILL BE NOTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. EXPECT A RETURN
FOR ALL TERMINALS TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 82 64 87 / 90 70 20 20
CAMDEN AR 65 84 64 88 / 50 40 10 0
HARRISON AR 61 81 63 84 / 90 60 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 82 63 86 / 80 50 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 83 65 88 / 80 70 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 66 85 66 88 / 30 30 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 62 82 64 85 / 80 40 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 82 63 85 / 90 60 10 30
NEWPORT AR 66 82 65 87 / 80 70 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 65 83 64 89 / 50 50 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 82 64 86 / 90 50 10 10
SEARCY AR 63 82 62 88 / 80 80 10 10
STUTTGART AR 67 82 65 87 / 60 80 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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