621
FXUS64 KLZK 160546
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
-ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE WEDS MID-AFTERNOON
-RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED EVENING INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY
-COOL DOWN AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A LINGERING LINE OF T'STORMS IS WEAKENING ACROSS NW AR EARLY WEDS
MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA THROUGH PRE-SUNRISE
HOURS. BY SUNRISE POPS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX PULL TO THE NORTH.
RAIN AND T'STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDS AFTERNOON
AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A SHALLOW H500 TROUGH
ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF DRY LINE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO TX WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND TAILING
DOWN TO NORTHERN AR BY MID-AFTERNOON. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP
TORNADO RISK LOW WITH EARLY DEVELOPMENT. HAILERS AND SPLITTING CELLS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF DEVELOPMENT CAN TAIL FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AR.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING WEDS
AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR W BY LATE-AFTERNOON WEDS. AS THESE
STORMS PUSH OFF THE DRYLINE THEY WILL BECOME MORE UPSCALE. IF THESE
CAN REMAIN ROOTED ALONG THE SURFACE A BRIEF ALL HAZARDS SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NW AR BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE
LINE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND LOSES MUCH OF ITS ORGANIZATION.
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED EARLY THURS MORNING AS STORMS RUN
INTO A VERY STABLE SFC TO 700MB LAYER IN ESTRN AR.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN DIMINISH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURS AND FRI. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE LIKELY ON FRI.
INTO THE WEEKEND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING TO NEUTRAL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE PEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. QPFS >1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP
SAT INTO SUN.
BEHIND THE CLDFRNT TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL SUN INTO MON, AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE STATE.
AREAS THAT DODGE SHOWERS THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DRY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD WINDS REMAIN SRTHLY BUT RATHER BENIGN
AROUND 8-10KTS WITH FEW TO NO GUSTS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE UPPER END
OF FIRE WX RISK, BUT THE CRITICAL MIN RHS AND WHERE MEANINGFULLY RAIN
FALLS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER INTO THE WEEK.
BY TUES NEXT WEEK SRTHLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND
BEGIN INCREASING MIN RH VALUES TO ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS ACROSS ARKANSAS AS CIGS LOWER WITH AS A MIXTURE OF SHRA
WITH OCCASIONAL TSRA MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A RETURN OF ALL SITES TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
AND MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 64 87 60 / 80 20 20 40
CAMDEN AR 84 64 88 64 / 40 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 81 63 84 51 / 50 10 30 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 63 86 61 / 50 20 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 65 88 64 / 70 20 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 85 66 88 66 / 30 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 82 64 85 59 / 40 20 10 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 82 63 85 53 / 60 10 30 60
NEWPORT AR 82 65 87 62 / 80 20 20 30
PINE BLUFF AR 83 64 89 64 / 60 10 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 64 86 59 / 50 20 10 40
SEARCY AR 82 62 88 61 / 80 20 10 30
STUTTGART AR 82 65 87 65 / 80 10 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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