516
FXUS64 KLZK 160701
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
201 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
-ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
-NEAR RECORD TEMPS FRIDAY
-RAIN AND T'STORM CHANCES ALONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY
-CRITICAL MIN RHS STATEWIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNTY ACROSS
CENTRAL AR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. A FEW LIGHT
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT MUCH QPF WITH THESE SHOULD NOT BE
EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RECOVER WELL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. A VERY SUBTLE H500
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MO IN PHASE WITH THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING
WILL FUEL A FEW T'STORMS OVER NE AR. THE PEAK BUOYANCY, RIGHT AROUND
3000J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND PEAK SHEAR, BETWEEN 50 AND 60KTS BULK SHEAR,
ARE MOSTLY OFFSET ON OTHER SIDES OF I-40 RESPECTIVELY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORM THAT CAN FIRE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN THE
BETTER SHEAR AND BETTER CAPE WOULD LIKELY BECOME DOMINATE BUT THE
RATHER WEAK AND OFFSET FORCING WILL KEEP THIS RISK LOW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END JUST AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BUILD IN WITH A RIDGE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST AR, SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE 90S. THIS
HEAT WILL QUICKLY BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH THAT HAS SPARKED
SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER FINALLY EJECTS THROUGH AND DRAGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FA AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NW AR AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT AND PUSH INTO
THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT.
AS THESE STORMS APPROACH ON FRIDAY EVENING THEY WILL YET AGAIN BE
WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPTICK IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO HAPPEN AROUND SUNSET IN SE AR.
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE STATE WILL BE LUCKY TO GET A HALF OF AN INCH
IN RAIN, THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXCEED THAT MARK SAT INTO SUN WILL
BE IN THE NW AND SE CORNERS OF THE STATE.
BEHIND TO CLDFRNT SUNDAY VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
MIN RH VALUES NEARING THE 20TH PERCENTILE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NNE AFTER THE FRONT AND RAINFALL FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
KEEP THE AREA WIDE FIRE RISK LOWER, BUT LOCATIONS THAT DODGE THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL THIS WEEK COULD DRY OUT BY MID AFTERNOON
AND HAVE AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK SUN.
MON WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS DRY BUT MIN RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW 30TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE S AS A RIDGE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
SLOWLY RETURN AND MIN RHS WILL RECOVER ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY
TUES. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM NORMAL EARLY WEEK
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS ACROSS ARKANSAS AS CIGS LOWER WITH AS A MIXTURE OF SHRA
WITH OCCASIONAL TSRA MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A RETURN OF ALL SITES TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
AND MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 65 86 61 / 80 20 20 50
CAMDEN AR 85 64 88 63 / 40 10 0 20
HARRISON AR 80 63 83 50 / 40 10 30 80
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 63 86 60 / 50 20 10 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 65 87 63 / 70 20 10 30
MONTICELLO AR 85 66 88 66 / 30 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 81 63 85 57 / 40 20 10 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 62 85 54 / 50 10 30 70
NEWPORT AR 82 64 87 61 / 80 20 20 40
PINE BLUFF AR 83 64 88 64 / 60 10 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 63 86 59 / 60 20 10 50
SEARCY AR 81 62 87 61 / 80 20 10 30
STUTTGART AR 82 66 87 64 / 80 10 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...74
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