898
FXUS64 KLZK 170438 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1138 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
-ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
-NEAR RECORD TEMPS FRIDAY
-RAIN AND T'STORM CHANCES ALONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY
-CRITICAL MIN RHS STATEWIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNTY ACROSS
CENTRAL AR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. A FEW LIGHT
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT MUCH QPF WITH THESE SHOULD NOT BE
EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RECOVER WELL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. A VERY SUBTLE H500
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MO IN PHASE WITH THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING
WILL FUEL A FEW T'STORMS OVER NE AR. THE PEAK BUOYANCY, RIGHT AROUND
3000J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND PEAK SHEAR, BETWEEN 50 AND 60KTS BULK SHEAR,
ARE MOSTLY OFFSET ON OTHER SIDES OF I-40 RESPECTIVELY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORM THAT CAN FIRE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN THE
BETTER SHEAR AND BETTER CAPE WOULD LIKELY BECOME DOMINATE BUT THE
RATHER WEAK AND OFFSET FORCING WILL KEEP THIS RISK LOW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END JUST AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BUILD IN WITH A RIDGE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST AR, SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE 90S. THIS
HEAT WILL QUICKLY BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH THAT HAS SPARKED
SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER FINALLY EJECTS THROUGH AND DRAGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FA AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NW AR AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT AND PUSH INTO
THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT.
AS THESE STORMS APPROACH ON FRIDAY EVENING THEY WILL YET AGAIN BE
WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPTICK IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO HAPPEN AROUND SUNSET IN SE AR.
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE STATE WILL BE LUCKY TO GET A HALF OF AN INCH
IN RAIN, THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXCEED THAT MARK SAT INTO SUN WILL
BE IN THE NW AND SE CORNERS OF THE STATE.
BEHIND TO CLDFRNT SUNDAY VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
MIN RH VALUES NEARING THE 20TH PERCENTILE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NNE AFTER THE FRONT AND RAINFALL FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
KEEP THE AREA WIDE FIRE RISK LOWER, BUT LOCATIONS THAT DODGE THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL THIS WEEK COULD DRY OUT BY MID AFTERNOON
AND HAVE AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK SUN.
MON WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS DRY BUT MIN RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW 30TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE S AS A RIDGE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
SLOWLY RETURN AND MIN RHS WILL RECOVER ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY
TUES. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM NORMAL EARLY WEEK
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
EXPECT DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY FRI
EVENING...AND ONLY SOME ISOLATED/PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
SEEN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. BREEZY SRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN FOR FRI DAYTIME HRS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE
STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RETURNING
TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD ACROSS NWRN
SECTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 87 58 70 / 20 10 70 80
CAMDEN AR 64 88 63 74 / 10 0 20 80
HARRISON AR 64 84 50 62 / 10 20 90 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 86 58 70 / 10 10 50 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 88 60 72 / 10 0 40 80
MONTICELLO AR 66 88 66 78 / 0 0 10 80
MOUNT IDA AR 64 85 56 68 / 10 10 60 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 85 52 65 / 10 30 80 50
NEWPORT AR 65 88 60 71 / 20 10 50 80
PINE BLUFF AR 65 88 63 74 / 10 0 20 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 87 57 69 / 20 10 60 60
SEARCY AR 63 88 59 73 / 20 10 50 80
STUTTGART AR 66 87 63 73 / 10 0 30 90
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...78
AVIATION...62
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