651
FXUS64 KLZK 172325
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
-NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY.
-RAIN TO PUSH FROM NW TO SE CORNERS OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY.
-CRITICAL MIN RHS STATEWIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BE A SMALL
RESPITE FROM RAIN AND T'STORMS BEFORE THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
DRIVING THESE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVITY EJECTS TO THE EAST.
BEFORE THAT A FAST MOVING RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
IN E AND NE AR.
TO PUSH OUT THE RIDGE A H500 SHORTWAVE BASED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND THE PARENT TROUGH COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT IN PHASE
ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS, AND DRAG A COOLER AND VERY DRY AIRMASS OUT OF
THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND T'STORM ACTIVITY.
AS A BROKEN RECORD ONCE AGAIN: STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST, BEGIN TO FALL APART OVER THE FA, AND THEN RAMP BACK
UP TO THE EAST. FROPA TIMING WILL BE THE CULPRIT OF THE WEAKENING
STORMS OF THIS SYSTEM. A STOUT 850-700MB INVERSION WILL PREVENT
ANY PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. AS THE CLDFRNT APPROACHES ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BE SHREDDED BY THE COMBINED MID LEVEL AND DIURNAL INVERSIONS IN NW
AR. PRECIP WILL BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL AR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MID
AFTERNOON SAT AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY FRONT FORMS ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE FA. ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE
ELEVATED AND POSE NO RISK OF SEVERE.
SAT EVENING IS THE BEST OF A LIMITED CHANCE FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THE AR/LA/MS
CORNER. A QUICK STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL COLLIDE WITH THE
FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PULSE T'STORMS BACK UP ALONG THE
FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BE RATHER CONSISTENT ON THE HAPPENING JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA, BUT IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER MOVING THAN
ANTICIPATED, THE BOTTOM ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OUR AREA COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM AROUND SUNSET SAT.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT THE
AIRMASS TRAILING THE FRONT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. MIN RHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW CRITICAL VALUES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL AREAS THAT WILL NOT RECEIVE
ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FROM THE PRECEDING SYSTEM. WINDS AND GUSTS
HAVE SLIGHTLY TRENDED UP OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT REMAIN
BELOW AND THRESHOLD THAT WOULD SPARK LARGE SCALE FIRE CONCERNS.
IRREGARDLESS THESE LOW MIN RHS AND EXTREME DROUGHT ANY AREAS
AVOIDING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL THIS WEEK WOULD HAVE LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE RISK.
BY TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE
AND WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDS AND CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MID RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE PICKING UP ON A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION TUES INTO WEDS SOME WEAK
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD FORM ACROSS THE STATE. AS OF NOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PRODUCING ANYTHING IS LOW, BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR AS ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE APPRECIATED AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
NW AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH WHICH WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH MVFR TO BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FORE SEVERAL HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 56 67 43 72 / 70 60 10 0
CAMDEN AR 64 73 42 73 / 20 90 50 0
HARRISON AR 49 62 39 70 / 90 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 69 43 73 / 40 60 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 70 44 72 / 40 70 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 66 76 46 72 / 10 80 60 0
MOUNT IDA AR 56 67 41 73 / 60 50 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 63 39 71 / 80 30 0 0
NEWPORT AR 58 70 43 72 / 50 70 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 63 73 44 72 / 20 80 40 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 67 41 73 / 70 40 10 0
SEARCY AR 58 70 41 72 / 50 70 10 0
STUTTGART AR 63 73 44 71 / 30 80 30 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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