128
FXUS64 KLZK 200445
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY, HIGHER CHANCE
ON FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH A
FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE CURRENTLY ARE IN
THE 50S WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S OVER A LARGE PART OF THE STATE WITH UPPER 40S OVER FAR PARTS
OF EAST ARKANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST TO THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH,
THEN SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING WARM UP NORTH INTO
THE STATE ALONG WITH SUBTLE MOISTURE RETURN REFLECTED IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING DEW POINTS.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GET ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AT
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING SHOWS A RATHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH WILL
MOVES ASHORE ON MONDAY MORNING, THEN EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
PARENT TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT MAY FINALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE STATE.
THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE TO THE
STATE AND NOT FAVORING AN AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE SEVERE WEATHER, IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL DO OCCUR, THEN THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF AT
LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDNS WL PREVAIL THRU THE NEW TAF PD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EWRD ACROSS THE FA. WINDS WL SUBSIDE AND BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MON MRNG, SRLY WINDS WL RESUME, GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS AT AREA TERMINALS, W/ CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 75 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 72 46 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 77 46 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 49 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 74 47 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 76 45 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 44 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 72 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 74 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 45 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 74 45 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 72 49 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...72
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