349
FXUS64 KLZK 210530
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE STATE, HIGHER CHANCE ON FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH A
FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE CURRENTLY ARE IN
THE 50S WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S OVER A LARGE PART OF THE STATE WITH UPPER 40S OVER FAR PARTS
OF EAST ARKANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST TO THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH,
THEN SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING WARM UP NORTH INTO
THE STATE ALONG WITH SUBTLE MOISTURE RETURN REFLECTED IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING DEW POINTS.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GET ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AT
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING SHOWS A RATHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH WILL
MOVES ASHORE ON MONDAY MORNING, THEN EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
PARENT TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT MAY FINALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE STATE.
THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE TO THE
STATE AND NOT FAVORING AN AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE SEVERE WEATHER, IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL DO OCCUR, THEN THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF AT
LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD BETWEEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
BEFORE SURFACE WINDS LOSE THEIR GUSTING CONDITION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 79 55 76 59 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 77 55 79 59 / 10 30 20 10
HARRISON AR 76 52 74 58 / 0 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 54 76 59 / 20 30 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 56 77 59 / 0 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 79 58 79 61 / 0 20 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 72 53 75 59 / 20 30 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 52 75 57 / 0 0 10 0
NEWPORT AR 80 56 77 59 / 0 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 79 57 78 60 / 0 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 77 54 76 59 / 10 10 20 0
SEARCY AR 79 53 76 57 / 0 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 79 59 77 61 / 0 20 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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