857
FXUS64 KLZK 210659
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
159 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, LIKELY LONGER.
- LOW END SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AHEAD OF HIGHER CHANCES STARTING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH
MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ENCOMPASS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW-END SHOWER POTENTIAL ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STATE LATER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS. THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE STATE, BUT SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY PEAKING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY WARM BUT COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE EAST OF THE REGION GOING INTO THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN USHERING IN
PROLONGED ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVELS
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AS THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR
JETS PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS TROUGHING FEATURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY
EJECTING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THIS LONGWAVE WOULD BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK AND EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH
50TH PERCENTILE DEW POINTS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID-60S BY
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON PATTERN EVOLUTION, THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BE A SCENARIO THAT COULD LEAD TO MULTIPLE
DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER. THUS, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
HONE IN ON THE DETAILS AS WE DRAW NEARER ON RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK IS OF
THE HIGHEST CERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES PROJECT TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD BETWEEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
BEFORE SURFACE WINDS LOSE THEIR GUSTING CONDITION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 79 55 76 59 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 77 55 79 59 / 10 30 20 10
HARRISON AR 76 52 74 58 / 0 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 54 76 59 / 20 30 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 56 77 59 / 0 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 79 58 79 61 / 0 20 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 72 53 75 59 / 20 30 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 52 75 57 / 0 0 10 0
NEWPORT AR 80 56 77 59 / 0 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 79 57 78 60 / 0 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 77 54 76 59 / 10 10 20 0
SEARCY AR 79 53 76 57 / 0 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 79 59 77 61 / 0 20 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...74
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