109
FXUS64 KLZK 212326 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
626 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, LIKELY LONGER.
- LOW END SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AHEAD OF HIGHER CHANCES STARTING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH
MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ENCOMPASS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW-END SHOWER POTENTIAL ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STATE LATER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS. THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE STATE, BUT SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY PEAKING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY WARM BUT COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE EAST OF THE REGION GOING INTO THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN USHERING IN
PROLONGED ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVELS
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AS THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR
JETS PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS TROUGHING FEATURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY
EJECTING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THIS LONGWAVE WOULD BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK AND EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH
50TH PERCENTILE DEW POINTS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID-60S BY
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON PATTERN EVOLUTION, THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BE A SCENARIO THAT COULD LEAD TO MULTIPLE
DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER. THUS, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
HONE IN ON THE DETAILS AS WE DRAW NEARER ON RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK IS OF
THE HIGHEST CERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES PROJECT TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDNS WL PREVAIL THRU THE NEW TAF PD. MAIN NOTE THRU TUES
NIGHT AND WED WL BE LOW TO MID-LVL CLOUD COVG MOVING ACRS WRN HALF
OF AR. NRN TERMINALS MAY SEE CIGS NEAR MVFR LVLS, BUT HAVE
EXCLUDED ANY MENTIONS FOR NOW. ASCTD PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER SWRN AR
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEYOND 00Z TUES NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, W/ LIGHT SRLY WINDS RESUMING ON WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 54 76 59 81 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 55 78 59 83 / 20 20 10 20
HARRISON AR 50 74 57 79 / 0 10 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 74 58 81 / 10 20 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 76 59 83 / 10 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 57 79 60 83 / 10 10 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 53 74 59 80 / 20 20 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 76 57 80 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 54 79 59 83 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 57 78 59 84 / 10 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 75 58 81 / 0 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 52 77 57 83 / 0 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 58 78 61 83 / 10 10 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...72
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