209
FXUS64 KLZK 220700
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH
MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING
FEATURE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS ALLOWING FOR SOME LARGER COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS, WITH HINTS OF SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.
ANY OF THESE SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE
QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS, BUT NOT MUCH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED EVEN IN THESE FAVORABLE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE STATE.
A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AS A PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THEN
AMPLIFIES GOING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THIS QUIETER PERIOD OF WEATHER TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RAMPS UP
TOMORROW, MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS, WHICH WILL IMPROVE THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MULTIPLE WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
THAT'LL BE CENTERED ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER, ANYWHERE FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE DAYS
WITH SOME LEVEL OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION AND
VICINITY DURING THIS PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH INCREASING THREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
POST-FRONT, THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAVORABLE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAKER
ZONAL FLOW SEEMS TO BE FAVORED. A MORE ROBUST JET PUSHING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS BY SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD
PRESENT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
AFTER THE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY, A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER SEEMS TO
BE FAVORED AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A LOWERED CLOUD DECK WILL ENTER THE FORECAST DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CIGS IN VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. THE
WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN SITES OF KHOT, KADF, KLIT, KPBF,
AND KLLQ MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY FOR THOSE SITES AS VCSH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY
WEDNESDAY LATER AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 76 59 81 65 / 0 10 20 30
CAMDEN AR 78 59 83 65 / 20 10 20 10
HARRISON AR 74 57 79 63 / 0 0 20 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 58 81 65 / 10 10 20 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 59 83 65 / 10 10 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 79 60 83 65 / 10 10 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 74 59 80 65 / 20 10 20 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 57 80 62 / 0 0 20 50
NEWPORT AR 79 59 83 66 / 0 0 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 78 59 84 65 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 58 81 65 / 10 0 20 30
SEARCY AR 77 57 83 63 / 10 10 20 20
STUTTGART AR 78 61 83 67 / 10 10 20 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...74
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