255
FXUS64 KLZK 070523
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
-STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY ALONG AN AXIS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR
-COOLER/CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
-ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH/SE LATE THIS TUE
EVENING...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS
EVENT OCCURRING POST FRONTAL. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR/CAPPING INVERSION
CONTINUES TO HOLD...COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS
HAS KEPT MOST ACTIVITY AT BAY. SHR HAS REMAINED IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH
HOWEVER...WITH 40-60+ KTS...WHICH HAS CAUSED MOST STRUGGLING
UPDRAFTS TO SHEAR APART. AS A RESULT...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SVR WX
HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SVR CONVECTION MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT IF THE FRONT AND LLJ CAN OVERCOME THE INCREASING CIN.
WHAT MAY DEVELOP COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS ON WED. THE AREAS THAT
COULD SEE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE IN A GENERAL EAST/WEST
CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS...OR MAYBE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. THIS MAY CONTINUE EVEN AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE AR/LA BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS
ADVERTISED IN THE LATER RUNS OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE FRONT SHOULD LIKELY BE ALONG OR EVEN SOUTH OF THE AR/LA
BORDER BY LATE MORNING ON WED...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SVR WX SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR WED DAYLIGHT HRS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/BRIEFLY SVR ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT COULD GENERATE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE MORE LIMITED TO FAR SERN SECTIONS.
COOLER AND CALMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NEW COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. MORE STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR. HOWEVER...DETAILS REGARDING EXACT SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED OVER CNTRL/SRN SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
REMAINING LIGHT ON THURSDAY. NRN SITES SHOULD HAVE WRLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS ON THURSDAY, MEANWHILE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT OTHER
LOCATIONS. SKC ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OVER NRN SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 48 77 58 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 73 50 77 58 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 68 46 78 54 / 0 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 49 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 50 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 72 51 76 59 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 73 47 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 45 78 54 / 0 0 0 30
NEWPORT AR 70 50 77 58 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 70 50 77 58 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 48 80 58 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 70 46 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 69 51 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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