178
FXUS64 KLZK 081737
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS...WITH LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
-MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY
-MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO REGION
-DRIER/WARM CONDITIONS EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
ALL QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY THIS FRI
MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE STATE. SRLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. WHILE SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY...MOISTURE LEVELS WON'T REBOUND CONSIDERABLY...WITH
DEWPTS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A NEW UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS AR
TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT ALSO DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE STATE. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO THE NW OF
THE CWA INTO THIS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
THE STATE...THE FRONT WILL SLOW/STALL NW OF AR. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AR...THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH AS IS PROGRESSES SE INTO
AR...AND ESPECIALLY THE CWA. EVEN SO...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA DROP SE INTO THE NWRN ZONES OF THE CWA THIS FRI
EVENING...BUT THE SEWD EXTENT LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A POCKET OF CONVECTION FIRE ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS LATER ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SRN AR. THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEEING STRONG/SVR WX TODAY/TONIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY
LIMITED...BUT SOME ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR TO LOW END SVR HAIL MAY
BE SEEN...AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE ACTIVITY.
SATURDAY DAYTIME LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S. A NEW FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT...WITH MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH THAT FRONT.
INITIALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SE FROM THE NW SUN MORNING.
THEN...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATER ON
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. BEYOND SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DECREASE...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID, BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN TERMINALS AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL
MAKE MVFR/IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
POSSIBLE VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 57 82 60 77 / 10 0 10 70
CAMDEN AR 59 82 61 81 / 20 10 10 70
HARRISON AR 54 81 57 71 / 60 0 30 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 83 61 78 / 20 0 10 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 82 61 78 / 10 10 10 70
MONTICELLO AR 61 82 62 83 / 30 10 10 60
MOUNT IDA AR 58 82 61 77 / 30 10 10 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 81 56 73 / 50 0 30 60
NEWPORT AR 58 82 59 79 / 10 0 10 70
PINE BLUFF AR 58 82 61 80 / 10 10 10 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 84 61 77 / 20 0 20 80
SEARCY AR 55 81 58 79 / 10 0 10 70
STUTTGART AR 59 81 63 80 / 10 0 0 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...73
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