068
FXUS64 KLZK 082327
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS...WITH LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
-MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY
-MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO REGION
-DRIER/WARM CONDITIONS EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
ALL QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY THIS FRI
MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE STATE. SRLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. WHILE SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY...MOISTURE LEVELS WON'T REBOUND CONSIDERABLY...WITH
DEWPTS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A NEW UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS AR
TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT ALSO DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE STATE. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO THE NW OF
THE CWA INTO THIS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
THE STATE...THE FRONT WILL SLOW/STALL NW OF AR. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AR...THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH AS IS PROGRESSES SE INTO
AR...AND ESPECIALLY THE CWA. EVEN SO...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA DROP SE INTO THE NWRN ZONES OF THE CWA THIS FRI
EVENING...BUT THE SEWD EXTENT LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A POCKET OF CONVECTION FIRE ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS LATER ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SRN AR. THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEEING STRONG/SVR WX TODAY/TONIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY
LIMITED...BUT SOME ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR TO LOW END SVR HAIL MAY
BE SEEN...AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE ACTIVITY.
SATURDAY DAYTIME LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S. A NEW FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT...WITH MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH THAT FRONT.
INITIALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SE FROM THE NW SUN MORNING.
THEN...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATER ON
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. BEYOND SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DECREASE...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO REMAIN ACROSS ALL SITES BESIDES THE TERMINALS OF
KADF, KPBF, AND KLLQ ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOUD DECK THAT WILL LOWER
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR.
ELSEWHERE, THE SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK MAY SEE SOME VCTS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SITE OF KLLQ WILL REMAIN
IN MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO
THE SITES OF KHRO OR KBPK WILL POSSIBLE PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 56 83 60 76 / 20 0 30 80
CAMDEN AR 58 84 62 83 / 10 10 10 70
HARRISON AR 54 82 58 71 / 50 0 30 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 83 61 79 / 10 10 30 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 57 82 62 79 / 10 10 20 80
MONTICELLO AR 59 83 63 84 / 10 10 10 60
MOUNT IDA AR 56 83 62 77 / 20 10 40 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 53 82 57 72 / 40 0 30 60
NEWPORT AR 57 82 60 78 / 10 0 20 80
PINE BLUFF AR 58 83 62 82 / 0 0 20 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 84 61 76 / 30 0 60 80
SEARCY AR 54 82 58 78 / 10 0 30 80
STUTTGART AR 59 82 63 80 / 0 0 20 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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