979
FXUS64 KLZK 090603
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
103 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
-MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO REGION
-DRIER/WARM CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAINS ON RADAR LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM A COMPLEX OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS JUST A FEW HOURS AGO.
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED STATEWIDE ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPROACH THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPC(STORM PREDICTION
CENTER) HAS PLACED PARTS OF CENTRAL, WESTERN, SOUTHERN, AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK(CATEGORY 2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN
THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS
WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS FAR WESTERN, NORTHWEST, AND FAR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS SEEING BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS. IF THESE
PARAMETERS HOLD IT, MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
MORE LIKELY IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH BETTER SHEAR. MAIN
HAZARDS ACROSS THE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KLLQ WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LOWERED CIGS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO AS LOW AS MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE CLOUD DECK WILL LIFT. EXPECT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT THE SITE OF KHRO MAY
EXPERIENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF ALMOST 20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 56 83 60 / 0 10 0 10
CAMDEN AR 77 58 84 61 / 10 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 78 54 82 58 / 0 50 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 56 84 61 / 0 10 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 57 83 61 / 0 10 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 59 84 62 / 0 30 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 74 56 83 61 / 0 10 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 53 82 57 / 0 40 0 10
NEWPORT AR 76 57 82 60 / 0 10 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 78 58 84 62 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 57 85 61 / 0 30 10 40
SEARCY AR 75 54 82 58 / 0 10 0 10
STUTTGART AR 78 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...74
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