060
FXUS64 KLZK 092258
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
-MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO REGION
-DRIER/WARM CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAINS ON RADAR LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM A COMPLEX OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS JUST A FEW HOURS AGO.
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED STATEWIDE ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPROACH THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPC(STORM PREDICTION
CENTER) HAS PLACED PARTS OF CENTRAL, WESTERN, SOUTHERN, AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK(CATEGORY 2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS FAR WESTERN,
NORTHWEST, AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS SEEING BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50 KTS. IF THESE PARAMETERS HOLD IT, MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MORE LIKELY IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH
BETTER SHEAR. MAIN HAZARDS ACROSS THE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KLLQ WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LOWERED CIGS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO AS LOW AS MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE CLOUD DECK WILL LIFT. EXPECT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT THE SITE OF KHRO MAY
EXPERIENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF ALMOST 20 KNOTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN VCSH AND VCTS
BEGINS TO IMPACT TAF SITES LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY TO AS LOW AS IFR
AND LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT TIMES. SUNDAY WILL EXPERIENCE A
MULTITUDE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WITH CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE AND A LOWER CLOUD DECK OVERALL THAT WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR TO
IFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 60 79 55 75 / 10 50 20 0
CAMDEN AR 61 84 58 75 / 10 60 50 20
HARRISON AR 58 73 49 74 / 20 70 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 80 57 75 / 30 60 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 80 57 74 / 10 50 40 0
MONTICELLO AR 62 84 61 75 / 10 50 60 20
MOUNT IDA AR 62 78 57 75 / 30 60 50 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 57 74 50 75 / 10 50 10 0
NEWPORT AR 59 80 56 75 / 10 60 30 0
PINE BLUFF AR 61 83 58 74 / 10 60 50 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 78 57 77 / 40 60 30 0
SEARCY AR 57 80 54 75 / 10 40 40 0
STUTTGART AR 62 82 59 74 / 10 50 40 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page