521
FXUS64 KLZK 100629 CCA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
.CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME.
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
-MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
AS A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO REGION
-DRIER/WARM CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD TOWARD WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
-NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SATELLITE LATE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MOVING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN ONGOING
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A LOW
STRATUS DECK WAS ALSO NOTED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S OBSERVED.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM, OF WHICH A FEW ARE CURRENTLY ARE STRONG WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARD WESTERN ARKANSAS. A LOOK AT HI-RES
CAMS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ALONG WITH 100-200 J/KG
OF ML CAPE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF I-40
SHOWS BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS WITH SURFACE
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THAT BEING SAID, THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. THE CLUSTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF MOTHERS DAY, A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OZARK PLATEAU WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE SPC( STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK( CATEGORY 2 OUT OF 5). THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LASTEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWST THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS,THEN THROUGH THE FAR
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH GREAT LAKES
REGION SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD REGION BY
AROUND THE MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALLOWING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
STATE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERN FLOW RETURNS BRINGING A GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN AND
WARM AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE STATE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL TREND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 80S POSSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KLLQ WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LOWERED CIGS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO AS LOW AS MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE CLOUD DECK WILL LIFT. EXPECT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT THE SITE OF KHRO MAY
EXPERIENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF ALMOST 20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 85 60 80 56 / 0 10 50 40
CAMDEN AR 82 61 82 59 / 10 20 40 60
HARRISON AR 83 58 74 51 / 0 10 60 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 61 79 58 / 10 30 50 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 61 80 57 / 0 10 50 50
MONTICELLO AR 80 62 82 61 / 10 10 30 40
MOUNT IDA AR 83 62 77 58 / 10 30 60 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 57 76 52 / 0 10 40 10
NEWPORT AR 84 59 81 57 / 0 0 60 50
PINE BLUFF AR 85 61 82 59 / 0 10 50 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 85 61 78 57 / 10 20 60 30
SEARCY AR 84 57 81 56 / 0 10 60 50
STUTTGART AR 84 62 81 60 / 0 10 60 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...74
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