239
FXUS64 KLZK 101041
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
541 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
-MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
AS A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO REGION
-DRIER/WARM CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD TOWARD WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
-NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SATELLITE LATE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MOVING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN ONGOING
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A LOW
STRATUS DECK WAS ALSO NOTED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S OBSERVED.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM, OF WHICH A FEW ARE CURRENTLY ARE STRONG WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARD WESTERN ARKANSAS. A LOOK AT HI-RES
CAMS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ALONG WITH 100-200 J/KG
OF ML CAPE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF I-40
SHOWS BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS WITH SURFACE
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THAT BEING SAID, THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. THE CLUSTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF MOTHERS DAY, A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OZARK PLATEAU WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE SPC( STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK( CATEGORY 2 OUT OF 5). THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LASTEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWST THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS,THEN THROUGH THE FAR
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH GREAT LAKES
REGION SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD REGION BY
AROUND THE MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALLOWING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
STATE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERN FLOW RETURNS BRINGING A GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN AND
WARM AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE STATE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL TREND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 80S POSSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT KLLQ. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS COULD BRING A BRIEF DROP IN CIGS AT KHOT &
KADF TO MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS FOR A BRIEF
TIME. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FALL APART AND
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HI-RES CAM SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE STATE FROM LOUIANA BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 56 75 51 / 50 40 0 0
CAMDEN AR 82 59 74 51 / 40 60 30 20
HARRISON AR 74 51 75 50 / 60 10 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 79 58 74 51 / 50 40 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 57 73 52 / 50 50 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 82 61 74 53 / 40 40 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 77 58 74 50 / 60 50 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 52 75 49 / 40 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 81 57 76 52 / 60 50 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 82 59 74 51 / 50 50 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 57 77 51 / 60 30 10 0
SEARCY AR 81 56 75 49 / 60 50 10 0
STUTTGART AR 81 60 74 53 / 60 50 20 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page