059
FXUS64 KLZK 102254
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
554 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
-ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
-DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MOVING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN ONGOING
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A LOW
STRATUS DECK WAS ALSO NOTED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S OBSERVED.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH A FEW ARE CURRENTLY STRONG WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST TOWARD WESTERN ARKANSAS. A LOOK AT HI-RES CAMS THIS
MORNING SHOWS THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ALONG WITH 100-200 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40. THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF I-40 SHOWS BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
THAT BEING SAID, THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED. THE CLUSTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF MOTHER'S DAY, A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OZARK PLATEAU WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE SPC HAS PLACED THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK
(CATEGORY 2 OUT OF 5). THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS, THEN THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY AROUND MID-WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING A BRIEF SHOT
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN FLOW
RETURNS BRINGING A GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM AIR INTO THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE STATE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL TREND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND A CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER A FEW CENTRAL
SITES TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY LATER MONDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. THE
MAJORITY OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A 6-8 HOUR WINDOW AT THE START
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN WHICH VCSH OR VCTS MAY BE PRESENT BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY COMPLETELY MOVES OUT OF ARKANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 56 76 52 80 / 40 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 59 75 51 81 / 60 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 51 76 52 81 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 75 52 80 / 40 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 74 52 79 / 50 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 61 74 54 80 / 40 20 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 58 75 50 80 / 50 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 76 50 82 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 57 77 53 81 / 50 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 59 74 52 80 / 50 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 77 52 82 / 30 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 56 76 50 79 / 50 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 60 75 54 79 / 50 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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