991
FXUS64 KLZK 110416
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1116 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
-ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
-DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MOVING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN ONGOING
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A LOW
STRATUS DECK WAS ALSO NOTED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S OBSERVED.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH A FEW ARE CURRENTLY STRONG WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST TOWARD WESTERN ARKANSAS. A LOOK AT HI-RES CAMS THIS
MORNING SHOWS THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ALONG WITH 100-200 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40. THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF I-40 SHOWS BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
THAT BEING SAID, THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED. THE CLUSTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF MOTHER'S DAY, A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OZARK PLATEAU WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE SPC HAS PLACED THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK
(CATEGORY 2 OUT OF 5). THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS, THEN THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY AROUND MID-WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING A BRIEF SHOT
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN FLOW
RETURNS BRINGING A GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM AIR INTO THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE STATE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL TREND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF MINIMAL EXCEPTIONS. THE TAF SITES OF
KLIT AND KLLQ MAY HAVE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, USED A TEMPO GROUP TO
CAPTURE THIS POSSIBILITY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY BE PRESENT AT THE
TAF SITES OF KPBF AND KLLQ LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS. ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME VFR FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND FAIR WEATHER WILL OCCUPY THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 79 56 79 52 / 50 50 0 0
CAMDEN AR 84 59 80 52 / 40 60 30 0
HARRISON AR 74 51 79 52 / 60 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 57 79 52 / 50 30 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 58 78 52 / 50 40 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 78 61 79 54 / 30 50 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 74 58 79 51 / 60 40 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 51 79 51 / 40 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 79 57 78 53 / 60 60 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 83 59 79 52 / 50 50 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 58 81 52 / 60 40 0 0
SEARCY AR 81 56 79 50 / 60 40 0 0
STUTTGART AR 80 60 78 54 / 60 50 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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