595
FXUS64 KLZK 120521
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
-DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
-DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S IN FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND 60S ELSEWHERE. THE REMAINING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BEFORE ENDING AROUND SUNRISE.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OVER THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BUT
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT WILL NOT BRING ANY OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER
CHANGES.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME, A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TREK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE STATE. AS WE HEAD INTO A SUNDAY, A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TREK
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN US SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT, BECOMING S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AT
ALL LOCATION ON TUES EXCEPT KPBF AND KLLQ WHERE WINDS MAY BE E/NE
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 59 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 82 54 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 81 60 81 52 / 0 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 56 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 81 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 80 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 82 59 81 51 / 0 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 81 59 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 81 55 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 58 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 80 54 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 80 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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