299
FXUS64 KLZK 121115
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN QUIET CONDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- BREEZY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND
- TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
ALL WAS QUIET ACROSS AR THIS TUESDAY MORNING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TODAY, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SUBTLE TROUGH ALONG
THE NRN GULF COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO NRN AR. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION ON N/NERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RETURNING.
COMPACT UPPER RIDGING WILL ADVANCE EWRD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORT
MAXIMA'S WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW, HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE FAVORING
PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LACKING AT THE MOMENT, THUS PRECLUDING MENTIONS
OF POPS.
BY FRIDAY, THE PATTERN IN ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL, WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS OUT OVER THE PLAINS. INCREASING PGF SHOULD
PROMOTE BREEZY CONDS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR DAYS, UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IS SET TO PASS OVER THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAVORED
MORE TO TIMES OF THE DAY CORRESPONDING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERALL, POPS ARE SPARSE WITH NO APPRECIABLE QPF EXPECTED.
BETTER POP CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A SHIFT FROM QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN TO MORE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT WILL RESULT FROM A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ANTICIPATED TO EJECT OUT OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE DURATION OF RETURN FLOW IN PLACE,
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
AR. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE HIGHS MAY TOP NEAR 90 OR INTO
THE LOWER 90S IN PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL LOCATION EXCEPT KPBF AND
KLLQ WHERE WINDS MAY BE E/NE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AT NRN SITES ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WOULD REACH CNTRL SITES JUST
AFTER 12Z WED, NO OPERATIONAL RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 58 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 84 52 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 83 59 80 52 / 0 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 82 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 81 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 58 80 49 / 0 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 82 58 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 81 54 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 57 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 81 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 80 56 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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