045
FXUS64 KLZK 130734
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN QUIET CONDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- BREEZY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND
- TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SCATTERED LOW/MID STRATUS WAS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NW AR THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SKIES
WERE CLEAR. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TODAY, THIS
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING LITTLE
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR THE SRN ROCKIES AND SUBTLE TROUGH ALONG THE FL
TO CAROLINA COAST. COMPACT UPPER RIDGING WILL ADVANCE EWRD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES/PLAINS TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS AR.
BY FRIDAY, THE PATTERN IN ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL, WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS OUT OVER THE PLAINS. INCREASING PGF SHOULD
ENCOURAGE BREEZY CONDS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CORRELATED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL, POPS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SPARSE WITH NO APPRECIABLE QPF EXPECTED.
BETTER POP CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SHIFT FROM QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN TO MORE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT WILL
RESULT FROM A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ANTICIPATED TO EJECT OUT OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. GIVEN THE DURATION OF RETURN FLOW IN PLACE, MOISTURE SHOULD
BE ADEQUATE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THE WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. ALOFT, THE TROUGH OUT W
SHOULD EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE MOMENTUM OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL IT
PUSH THROUGH AR BEFORE STALLING. IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
STATE, THIS COULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE HIGHS MAY TOP NEAR 90 IN PLACES WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
EXPECT DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. A NEW DRY FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME NRLY WINDS INCREASING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 51 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 87 56 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 79 49 80 63 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 56 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 55 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 87 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 86 56 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 48 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 84 53 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 85 55 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 54 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 84 51 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 84 55 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...62
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