631
FXUS64 KLZK 300511 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1211 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
-ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE THIS WEEKEND.
-SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WITH A COUPLE OF NEARBY SFC LOWS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
SLOW MOVING H500 TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE,
ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MOST
LIKELY COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SIMILAR TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. THESE DOWNPOURS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY PW VALUES
AROUND 2.00" AND MINIMAL SHEAR IN PLACE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL ON THURSDAY. ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE PAID TO NORTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.
CAM DATA SUGGESTS THAT AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING PRECIP ACROSS
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY, ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS WOULD FAVOR A LOWER
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS NORTHEAST AR HAS
SEEN LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY.
GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, H500 RIDGING
MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE STATE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS
WILL HELP REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S F AND TD VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S F
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T VERY HIGH REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND
LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NW FLOW AS FAR WEST AS THE OHIO VALLEY, POTENTIALLY CLOSER
TO ARKANSAS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. IF
NOTHING ELSE, IT WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS THE H500 RIDGE TOWARD THE
WEST. THIS SETUP MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED AS OF EARLY THIS SAT MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS NOTED. HOWEVER...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY LOW VIS/CIGS THIS MORNING. SOME CONVECTION OVER NERN
OK EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OVER
TIME...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE NRN TERMINALS BY AROUND SUNRISE OR
JUST BEFORE...WITH A BREAK SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS
FROM NRN AR DOWN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP TO DISSIPATE BY SAT EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 85 69 88 / 30 50 10 40
CAMDEN AR 71 92 71 94 / 20 20 20 10
HARRISON AR 66 85 68 87 / 40 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 90 71 92 / 20 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 88 70 90 / 30 50 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 72 91 72 92 / 10 30 20 30
MOUNT IDA AR 72 89 72 91 / 10 20 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 85 67 88 / 50 40 10 30
NEWPORT AR 69 87 69 89 / 20 40 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 71 90 71 91 / 20 40 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 89 71 91 / 40 50 0 10
SEARCY AR 68 87 68 90 / 30 60 10 30
STUTTGART AR 71 88 72 90 / 20 50 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...62
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