313
FXUS64 KLZK 301103 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
-DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
-AREA TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 90 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
-SETTLED WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SETTLED WEATHER CONDNS WERE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF THE FA NEAR
30/06Z FRI NIGHT, W/ REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOVING EWRD OVER NERN OK. THRU SUNRISE SAT MRNG, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL TO NRN AR, W/
RECENT NIGHT FOG SAT IMGRY DEPICTING SOME DEVELOPMENT, COINCIDING W/
LOWERING VISBYS ON AREA SFC OBS.
THRU THE WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING W/ MODEST FLOW WL
RESIDE ACRS THE MID-SOUTH. SAT AND SUN, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A SFC THETA-E
GRADIENT/LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE, DRAPED FM NW TO SE OVER NRN AR.
AFTN MUCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF AR,
W/ 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORM
POTENTIAL THRU THE AFTN TO EVNG HOURS. LARGE 3CAPE VALUES > 150 J/KG
WL BE CONDUCIVE OF STRONG INITIAL UPDRAFTS, W/ MAIN CONCERNS
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT, HIGH PWAT VALUES WL YIELD VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES, W/ HREF 90TH %ILE QPF HIGHLIGHTING POCKETS OF 1.5 TO 2" OR
GREATER RAINFALL W/ ANY DEVELOPMENT, WHICH MAY EXACERBATE RECENT
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
MON, NWRLY H500 FLOW LOOKS TO INCRS IN MAGNITUDE ACRS THE MID-SOUTH
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTS SWRD INTO MEAN ERN US TROUGHING. A
CORRIDOR OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACRS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, AS DEPICTED BY SHEAR PROFILES, ANTECEDENT
INSTABILITY, AND VARIOUS MODEL DEPICTIONS IN THE LOW-LVL MASS
FIELDS. FOR NOW, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON WHERE POSSIBLE MCS
ACTIVITY MAY ARISE, BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE MON AFTN TO EVNG.
TUES INTO WED, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WL EXTEND
SWWRD INTO THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ NERLY SFC WINDS USHERING IN MUCH-
ANTICIPATED DRIER AIR, AND PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FM THE
HUMIDITY. THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WL SHIFT
EWRD, UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE CENTERING OVER THE FA, AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE QUELLING AREA PRECIP CHANCES TO JUST LOCAL DIURNAL
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SOME TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOW CIGS/VIS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HRS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THIS SAT MORNING.
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOK TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...GENERALLY FROM NRN/NWRN
SECTIONS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT MORE FOG/LOW CIGS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 84 68 85 69 / 10 30 40 20
CAMDEN AR 92 71 93 71 / 10 10 30 10
HARRISON AR 83 67 85 68 / 60 40 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 87 70 88 71 / 20 10 40 20
MONTICELLO AR 89 71 91 71 / 20 10 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 89 73 89 72 / 20 10 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 67 84 67 / 20 50 40 20
NEWPORT AR 85 69 87 70 / 0 10 50 20
PINE BLUFF AR 88 71 90 71 / 20 10 40 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 72 89 72 / 40 20 50 10
SEARCY AR 86 68 87 69 / 20 30 50 10
STUTTGART AR 86 71 88 72 / 10 20 50 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...62
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